I think people are over estimating again, but it's not uncommon. Sideshow knows things we don't, and have access to information they use for setting the edition sizes - and whether something would get made or not - so it's often tough to say. Let's pretend for a minute that we're Sideshow though, and that our paychecks depend on our decisions.
I think we can all agree that the Lawgiver and Luke would probably never see the light of day without SDCC. Interestingly enough, the Lawgiver is the only one of the seven to sell out, and did so in just 40 minutes. I think that the fact it was coming got leaked so early, has kept POTA collectors from picking up the regular version, and they waited for this one.
What about Oz? He's fairly iconic I suppose, but both Vamp Buffy and Origins Angel are pretty cool variants, set at 750, available for anyone to buy, and they aren't selling. The exclusive version of Oz sold through, but how well is the regular version selling? Sideshow knows - we don't. But I would hazard a guess that how well (or not) he's selling directly effected the edition size of 750.
Patient Zero is a variant of a figure we haven't gotten yet, so in reality, he's just like Luke and Lawgiver. Will we see a Patient Zero? Yes, but we'll see another version of him anyway. This way we end up with two - the limited SDCC exclusive, and a larger run version later. Without SDCC, there would only be the larger run version later. I also suspect that there is some concern at Sideshow over how well an in house Zombie line can do, and this exclusive is a great chance to quell any fears. Without it, perhaps...just perhaps...they'd decide not to take the chance on the larger line. They can be pretty sure that they'll sell through these 300, but without testing the waters, they might be a lot less likely to jump on the band wagon with a larger run.
Hellboy is one I think we'd see anyway, and the run of 2000 pretty much proves that. I also think it will be one that nobody has a problem getting, and with 1000 of them earmarked for some sort of international distribution, it's clear they know the demand is there.
I can't really speak to the Rohirrim soldier, as I don't follow the busts.
And then there's Thor's helm and hammer. This one could go either way. I'm betting it's a fairly expensive item to make (much more so than the 1/4 scale Samaritan, since they already had the 1:1 version they could simply scale down), and I'm also betting that the margins on these aren't all that great. It is the only one though (other than Hellboy) that I can see them possibly doing without SDCC.
So out of 7, I think 4 are figures we wouldn't be getting otherwise, 1 I don't know, 1 we'd get for sure, and 1 is up in the air.
Michael
MWC