I guess it just comes down to the subjective sense of the term rare between other people and I.
-You might have me on the transformers. That's one of the few lines I have never followed in terms of value.
-CM T-800 was under $2k at retail.
-Your right on the QS 1:1 busts. The early ones were extremely limited, but with shipping, some were quite a bit over $3k.
-P1 dog was also under $2k at retail
I also agree with you on JND WW. That one will likely go up quite a bit unless JND double dips and does the same sculpt in her normal armor. The common dominator seems to be the amount of high quality statues of that particular character. I still stand by my opinion that this won't be one of those types of pieces just based on the amount of other high quality Joker interpretations, but we shall see. I wish this was a bank robber version to be honest. We haven't seen one of those yet.[/QUOTE)
Well there is a difference between very rare which you previously state compared to rare which you now state. But that's ok to change your stance a little.
Your rationale was that it would be very rare for statues around $2500 to increase by 10% or more because of its high price starting point. You used this price point as a collector on this thread mentioned a retailer was selling the JND for $2500. We all know the JND actual price is $2100 but fair enough, we go by $2500 as some retailers price in shipping, taxes and a little extra for profit margin which would be reasonable.
Using this figure, I think you may clutching at straws by your rationale of the following:
-Yes Cm T-800 was under 2k retail price (from memory around $1500) though that was back in 2006, when money was thicker, factoring inflation, today's equivalent price will be well within the 2k range, similar to JNDs price now. Add shipping and taxes, it'll creep up to $2500, again very comparable to the price of JND if one were to buy from a third party or order it from the parent company.
-P1 alien also factoring inflation would be just under or around 2k, again quite comparable to JND joker in price. Adding shipping and taxes it'll also be around $2500 which again, very similar to the JND price for oversea buyers.
So I think pointing these two out and simply saying their under 2k and not factoring taxes, shipping and inflation but doing so on the JND joker piece is not a fair call and a bit of a stretch.
I also think the both the wonder woman life scale busts will also do well. They retail even more than $2500 by your rationale these would increase even lesser than 2k statues? Not necessarily mate, if these busts get close to the prototype quality, they may go for $5000 in the future especially ones in excellent or near new conditions.
For me the common denominator is not one but of three factors: the character/creature/actor needs to be very much loved, the piece needs to be of very, very high quality (accuracy + asthetics) and numbers are limited editions (as opposed to limitless ones like the old endos from sideshow).
Only QS and JND appear to have hit all 3 marks on this joker, (Prime 1 current 1/3 joker just doesn't quite reach that bench in terms of very, very high quality and I won't mention other companies as they don't come close).
I can understand why collectors think there is an abundance of 'high quality' Ledger joker replicas like yourself, but if you take out all the noise, imho, if we are taking about absolute grail pieces, atm there's only really one standout and one borderline/on the fence standout. QS 1/4 joker is an excellent replica, but it's borderline for me in terms of grail level because ironically the sculptured version may end up hindering the artist version in future value and there are other variants of the grenade pose, whilst JND is truly unique in it's own sense, the clothes, the face, the make up etc it reminds me of the cm t-800 endo and cm predator which were true standouts for their time and still hold well compared to todays statues. Also I wouldn't include P1 half scale joker and QS 1/3 sitting joker as both missed the mark re grail status, there both decent, but JND and to a certain extent QS are simply on another level. Again like comparing cm t-800 to hcg 1/2 scale endo or sideshow 1/4 scale endo, with the latter two being decent, but no grail level.
That said, I do believe Prime 1 can match both JND and QS by simply not releasing so many different types of statues and in such high edition numbers but focus more on quality over quantity.