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Part of this depends on measure of success. If Avengers2 makes $500M it will be a bomb, but if FF makes that it will be a blockbuster. But I understand the intent.
I think the movies most at risk of underperforming would be
Terminator -- Franchise fatigue and nothing looks new. Unless there is some kind of huge surprise it just feels like an outdated 90s movie with a new cast.
Fantastic Four -- It has nothing to do with casting or going against canon, because 98% of the movie-going audience could not give two shakes about Johnny being black, Reed being under 30 or Ben being a chubby 20something. Rather they've been describing the movie as being "a different take" and "more grounded in reality" which is risky and sounds like another "Chronicle", which was both a good movie and a commercial success, but not a blockbuster. I think the smart thing would be to basically stick to the formula that Marvel has been successfully using, DC is emulating and FOX is doing with XMen--big escapist superheroes with cool powers, costumes, and technology and much larger than life set pieces. Once they start promoting the movie we'll have a better idea. If they are in cool looking costumes and the CGI Thing looks great it could be be a surprise hit and the fanboys will be silenced. If the characters are in civvies and it doesn't look and feel like a big ass superhero movie it will probably open weak and need word of mouth to prop it up. Nevertheless I would not count it out.
Mad Max -- not sure what their expectations are in the $ department. While fan favorites I don't think Mad Max movies were ever huge blockbusters. Another one that feels somewhat like franchise fatigue, like they are trying to recrank an old car.
Jupiter Ascending -- looks gorgeous but sounds like mishmash. Not to mention it was delayed for almost a year which is never a good sign. Something about it reminds me of John Carter.
I think there will also be a couple of breakout surprises.
Jurassic World -- The premise sounds cool and the cast is solid. The test footage they used to sell the movie looks great. Plus dinos haven't been on the screen in a while.
Ant Man -- I think the Marvel juggernaut will keep rolling. I wasn't happy when they didn't go with Hank Pym (and Jan as Wasp) and instead went with Scott Lang. But the addition of Hope Van Dyne as the daughter won me over, and Evangeline Lilly is cute. It means we will probably see Wasp and hopefully both characters will be added to the Avengers in time for Infinity War. Maybe Lang will also become Giant Man. Sure it's not canon, but close enough. Premise sounds pretty cool. The other thing is Ant Man may be able to give us something on the big screen we haven't seen since "Honey I Shrunk the Kids" -- humans in a macro environment. But again this has to be a superhero movie with cool costumes for both Ant Man and Yellowjacket, Hope should be Wasp, and one or two crossover cameos from the A-team wouldn't hurt either.
We all know that Avengers 2 and Star Wars VII are going to make ridiculous amounts of money. I've watched the Avengers trailer at least 20 times. Looking forward to seeing the first SW trailer.
I think the movies most at risk of underperforming would be
Terminator -- Franchise fatigue and nothing looks new. Unless there is some kind of huge surprise it just feels like an outdated 90s movie with a new cast.
Fantastic Four -- It has nothing to do with casting or going against canon, because 98% of the movie-going audience could not give two shakes about Johnny being black, Reed being under 30 or Ben being a chubby 20something. Rather they've been describing the movie as being "a different take" and "more grounded in reality" which is risky and sounds like another "Chronicle", which was both a good movie and a commercial success, but not a blockbuster. I think the smart thing would be to basically stick to the formula that Marvel has been successfully using, DC is emulating and FOX is doing with XMen--big escapist superheroes with cool powers, costumes, and technology and much larger than life set pieces. Once they start promoting the movie we'll have a better idea. If they are in cool looking costumes and the CGI Thing looks great it could be be a surprise hit and the fanboys will be silenced. If the characters are in civvies and it doesn't look and feel like a big ass superhero movie it will probably open weak and need word of mouth to prop it up. Nevertheless I would not count it out.
Mad Max -- not sure what their expectations are in the $ department. While fan favorites I don't think Mad Max movies were ever huge blockbusters. Another one that feels somewhat like franchise fatigue, like they are trying to recrank an old car.
Jupiter Ascending -- looks gorgeous but sounds like mishmash. Not to mention it was delayed for almost a year which is never a good sign. Something about it reminds me of John Carter.
I think there will also be a couple of breakout surprises.
Jurassic World -- The premise sounds cool and the cast is solid. The test footage they used to sell the movie looks great. Plus dinos haven't been on the screen in a while.
Ant Man -- I think the Marvel juggernaut will keep rolling. I wasn't happy when they didn't go with Hank Pym (and Jan as Wasp) and instead went with Scott Lang. But the addition of Hope Van Dyne as the daughter won me over, and Evangeline Lilly is cute. It means we will probably see Wasp and hopefully both characters will be added to the Avengers in time for Infinity War. Maybe Lang will also become Giant Man. Sure it's not canon, but close enough. Premise sounds pretty cool. The other thing is Ant Man may be able to give us something on the big screen we haven't seen since "Honey I Shrunk the Kids" -- humans in a macro environment. But again this has to be a superhero movie with cool costumes for both Ant Man and Yellowjacket, Hope should be Wasp, and one or two crossover cameos from the A-team wouldn't hurt either.
We all know that Avengers 2 and Star Wars VII are going to make ridiculous amounts of money. I've watched the Avengers trailer at least 20 times. Looking forward to seeing the first SW trailer.
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With a budget of only $40 million, it's going to make a killing. But how much? Will it make more than Sex and the City 2's $300+ million?
