Even box office mojo is feeling a bit stumped at predicting the films grosses, I think they are pretty much on the money though...
.This weekend Sony's Ghostbusters hits theaters amid a flurry of headlines such as being named the film with the most disliked movie trailer in YouTube history to Sony chief Tom Rothman responding to the negative online response by telling The Hollywood Reporter, "It's the greatest thing that ever happened. Are you kidding me? We're in the national debate, thank you. Can we please get some more haters to say stupid things?" As a result, awareness certainly seems high, but how that awareness translates to box office is the big question. There's always the old saying, "There's no such thing as bad press"... right?
Back in 2015 online furor called Mad Max: Fury Road "feminist drivel filth". Ultimately the uproar didn't have a noticeable impact on Fury Road's box office performance as it opened with $45 million, grossed over $150 million domestically and over $375 million worldwide on a $150 million budget. The comparison may end up eerily similar for Ghostbusters given the film's $144 million budget and its expected opening weekend.
In attempting to forecast that opening weekend, sorting the signal from the noise is a near impossibility. One might be tempted to put stock in Ghostbusters' more than 2.9 million Facebook fans. Trouble is, that page wasn't focused on the reboot until around May 2015 and even as of November 2015 it still featured the cast of the original Ghostbusters film in its "About" section at a time when it had already amassed nearly 2.4 million fans.
A study of IMDb.com traffic data is also tough to go by over the past few days. The results could very easily be skewed as a result of headlines focused on alleged ballot-stuffing suggesting a small group of IMDb users were attempting to intentionally lower the film's user score. For some perspective, the film's IMDb user rating currently stands at 4.1/10 with over 14,000 votes, 50% of which score the film 1/10. Only one-third of the film's grades have come from outside the United States and so far the only territory that has released the film is the UK, and that was on July 11.
Information that can be considered a little more closely includes the 74% rating on RottenTomatoes for Ghostbusters, which has held relatively steady over the past few days. Also, Fandango.com reports the film is the online ticket retailer's top pre-selling live-action comedy of the year so far. The film is outselling comparable titles including Central Intelligence and Ride Along 2, both of which opened over $35 million, and is looking to become director Paul Feig and star Melissa McCarthy's top preseller on Fandango, suggesting an opening above 2013's The Heat ($39.1m).
In terms of a prediction, Sony is going conservative, anticipating a $38-40 million opening for the film. Given the pre-sale information alone, that forecast looks like a bare minimum as an opening closer to $45-50 million seems like a reasonable opening weekend range. While that would give the film the largest opening for a live action comedy this year, topping Central Intelligence's $35.5 million opening last month, the size of the budget and the fact this is being looked at as a franchise starter means it's going to want a multiplier similar to the 4.78 average multiplier Feig's last three films have delivered.
We'll also be keeping a close eye on the film's international performance, especially since it was just revealed it will not be released in China, partly as a result of China's official censorship guidelines prohibiting movies that "promote cults or superstition". However, the film has already hit theaters in the UK and will also be released in Australia, Brazil and a few smaller territories this weekend. It will expand its international footprint over the weeks to come....
The Secret Life of Pets (4,382 theaters) - $54.3 M
Ghostbusters (2016) (3,963 theaters) - $46 M
Finding Dory (3,536 theaters) - $11.4 M
The Legend of Tarzan (3,551 theaters) - $10.9 M
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (3,008 theaters) - $7.5 M
The Purge: Election Year (2,670 theaters) - $6.6 M
Central Intelligence (2,381 theaters) - $4.3 M
The Infiltrator (1,600 theaters) - $4.1 M
The BFG (2,182 theaters) - $4.1 M
Independence Day: Resurgence (2,290 theaters) - $3.9 M
