I agree with most of your points but I also have to remphasize that experience also played a huge part. Greenbay has proven time and time again that they can win on the road in any environment, dome, indoor stadium or out in the worst weather conditions in the playoffs. That don't have to be in Lambeau.
Steelers also are an exceptional road winning team as well.
Atlanta is a horrible road team especially in the playoffs. They beat Seattle yesterday because Seattle has a mediocre road success in the Wilson era. And Ryan is smoking in the dome.
The Atlanta defense is still suspect IMO. I do think Packers can beat them in the dome. Because of #12
As for Steelers, if Bell has a game like today, that's how they will win..it's not up to Ben this time to win the game. The defense has to be lights out on Brady . But like you I agree that Pats will go to the SB because Bellichick is a master at taking away the opponents best players. Brady is so fundamentally sound that the Pittsburgh defense really got to rattle him for the Pats to lose the game