The State of the 1/6 market and collecting

[abake]

On another forum (the Movie Maniacs board) Jerry of SOTA and PCS fame confirmed that the "The Thing" 1/6 scale figures have been cancelled (and I think the AWIL as well). The reason for this being that the market for 1/6 figures is hitting a crisis, or "collpasing", as he put it.
Among the things that were discussed is that sales are slowing down, even for giants such as HT.
I remember something similar happening in the WWII market, which collapsed after dominating the 1/6 market for nearly a decade. Now, it hasn't disappeared, but the figures being made are almost exclusively the big sellers, i.e. fancy Nazis.
So do you think we're heading in the same direction?
Only Star Wars, D.C. and Marvel to look forward to, with less and less figures from more fringe or niche franchises/themes?

 

[Johnny Utah]

No I don't think so. If anything it's getting more diverse. My only worry is pricing. Eventually I'll quit. Bond is the first 1/6 I've out money down on in years. If you get the right license and execute it well, people will pay for it. The problem is everyone us jumping in the game and crowding the market, with most churning out ****e.

 

[Johnny Utah]

No I don't think so. If anything it's getting more diverse. My only worry is pricing. Eventually I'll quit. Bond is the first 1/6 I've out money down on in years. If you get the right license and execute it well, people will pay for it. The problem is everyone is jumping in the game and crowding the market, with most churning out ****e.

 

[jal76]

I think that we will continue to see Marvel, Star Wars, DC dominance...but as far as the entire market collapsing...not so much...Hot Toys does not seem to be slowing down their output with the above licenses...we are getting fairly close to having as many Leto Jokers (including the Batman Imposter) than Nicholson and Ledger Jokers combined so that would indicate that in spite of the fact that the Dark Knight was a SIGNIFICANTLY greater commercial and critical (including with fans) success than Suicide Squad the 1/6 market sustains itself. I think we will see a decline in the "niche" market...when the biggest company is not playing there is an obvious decline in this area. Companies like Blitzway, Enterbay, Star Ace, even Asmus will continue to produce niche figures and who knows if the Ghostbusters set does as well as I imagine it will that could encourage more risk taking from the smaller players. Hot Toys, however, has no reason or incentive to shift from their current Star Wars and Super Heroes Only business model.

 

[Underworld54]

I think it's a BS excuse in order for them to cancel those two licenses.

 

[Ex-Parrot]

Hate to say it, but it sounds like an 'easy out' excuse for not going forward, to me.

To me there seems to be more variety and higher standards than ever before, due to increased competition. And I don't think the market would be so competitive or as diverse if it was getting anywhere near a crisis point. Which doesn't mean everything is a cakewalk for companies, they still have to be smart with what they do and how they do it, but ever was the case, really.

Hot Toys may not see the quick sell outs of days gone by, but I think that's a mix of a more competitive market, their own tendency to produce in much larger numbers these days, and their own business model which now leans very heavily on a few key licenses, with little time for too much else (despite all the licenses they chew up and do only the odd token release with, or even outright sit on).

The landscape has changed, sure, but all in all I'm surprised at just how resilient the market has been, especially given the notable sharp rise in the sheer amount and availability of unlicensed customs and bootlegs in recent times, and their often comparable quality and gradual acceptance in many corners of collecting.

Hell, that's my take, anyway, for what little it's worth.

 

[Johnny Utah]

I think it's a BS excuse in order for them to cancel those two licenses.

This.

 

[Murderofcrows71]

I can see it to a point. I'm not buying in the numbers I used to due to the higher pricing of the companies. Where I used to buy 20 to 30 figures a year now I'm around the 5 to 10 range due to pricing. Which means I pick and choose and do figures I would love to order fall by the way side. When prices start going beyond what the collectors can afford or is willing to pay then we have a collapse of the hobby as we know it. I've been saying we were getting close to it so it wouldn't surprise me if we see more and more of it happening unless prices come down some.

 

[jespernicolaj]

We get more figures from lesser Franchises. I would say the 1/6 is doing pretty good.

 

[sj2106]

Prices are getting way to high for sure. It feels they are increasing way ahead of inflation and they don't even offer as much as they used to in the case of Hot Toys. For $250 you'd get two sculpts and a ton of accessories, now that seems to the basic price of a bare bones figure. NECA offer two sculpts on a 1/4 scale Catwoman for $100 but HT never do this anymore even on figures crying out for it.

At the very least I'd say many collectors are buying less as a result of this and the lack of franchise choice.

 

[SwedishHeat]

Among the things that were discussed is that sales are slowing down, even for giants such as HT.

Of course it is.

Remember when SSC made 10,000 Bespin Hans?

The edition sizes were shrinking year over year. . . then they stopped posting them.

It's simple economics, price goes up, quantity goes down. If they sold 10,000 figures at $55, how many do you think they sell when the cost is $240?

 

[xipotec]

I see exactly what I thought would happen. Large scale producers are trying to sell massive amounts of high price license figures, and making multiple iterations of popular characters. This WILL hurt the market.
There are not that many nerds with hard ons for 3 Captain Americas or 3 Lejokers.....or even 2 Harley's.....

But the license was so expensive they have to do this to recoup the investmenst. Couple that with probable very disappointing sales on these licenses, (SW and Marvel and DC) evident from all of the figures still available .....and you have a recipe that sets up higher prices on future releases to male up for the losses.

The companies that will continue to do well will be cheaper licenses, smaller production runs on niche characters.

They will never succeed in massive production for high end licenses because there are just not enough people around who can and will pay 250 for a doll.




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[jespernicolaj]

As far as I remember, Han and Chewy sold out pretty fast. Antman too. Some figures are still around, like Tonto and Mandarin (both great figures), but I guess you're right about not too many people willing to pay 250 USD for a toy. I still lie and tell my kids they cost way less, cause I can't justify otherwise.

 

[Sweet Rabbit]

Jerry probably just wanted out of the license because it wasn't selling like he thought it would. He says that a lot when licenses fail

 

[Prime Clone]

I can see collectors getting more selective as prices continue to rise. If you look at the diecast model industry, they've had to start using resin to keep the product within an acceptable price range.

Also the kids' toy industry is shrinking due to competition from digital devices. We've seen Hasbro switch to a more budget style of 12" figure and leave the deluxe versions to SS and HT. We've also seen Lego and Disney try to jump on the digital bandwagon with Dimensions and Infinities.

Unfortunately inflation is a constant, and once Asian labor costs start to rise it will only make matters worse. I can foresee a time when the cost of production becomes prohibitive relative to how much customers are willing to pay.

 

[ali032373]

HT War Machine mk 3 is roughly $340. It is waitlisted at ssc and sold out in all but 1 retailer. Black panther at $215ish, same thing. Deadppol, bvs batman, bvs superman all sold out. Havent seen this many sell out figures in a long time.

Over the last 2-3 yrs lines have expanded- nba, tyson, hogan, more tv shows.

The bootleg market is BOOMING. Never seen so many reasonably priced, well done knock offs ever. (Max, furiosa, cyclops, magneto, colossus, carl grimes, etc.). Theres also now a knock off market for just clothing and accessories.

In my book business is doing well. But like many businesses the issue can become how to keep up the momentum. Because at some point you just run out of cool stuff to make. Youve made every Spidey or Terminator you can.

So in my book failing to do mcready due to the market collapsing doesnt hold water. But that manufacturer may know something we dont.

 

[holtrax]

No i don't think the 1/6th scale market is collapsing or has hit any sort of crisis. If anything its growing but for me its just growing in the wrong direction. Too much focus on the same licenses i.e Iron Man, Star Wars and Dc Comics and not enough focus on older 80's Sci Fi and action licenses.

 

[xipotec]

As far as I remember, Han and Chewy sold out pretty fast. Antman too. Some figures are still around, like Tonto and Mandarin (both great figures), but I guess you're right about not too many people willing to pay 250 USD for a toy. I still lie and tell my kids they cost way less, cause I can't justify otherwise.

This is true but you guys are not thinking as a business does.

They re-issueed Han and Chewie because the knew the market would take more than they initially produced. In a short time second hand market prices doubled......answer....second run. And a new version.

As for Batman, they are also doing a second run, just adding stuff to the figure. They also think multiple versions will increase sales (this is incorrect and almost always one version is universally wanted more) so you get 6 Jokers and Harleys and God knows how many more Batman.....they would be better off on second runs for the sold out ones.

Antman was a good figure.....but I think they realized the license had reached its peak and walked away from it.

Its over production of a license , but not of the figures people want. They bash licenses to death with many version of a figure that really does not need it. The person who has to own every Iron Man is a rare thing......it gets even more rare a thing with other licenses. Who is really gonna buy every Letoker made? One will be the favorite and thats the one the should keep producing till sales slide.

Maybe they should show pics of all the possible versions and see which one gets the most orders .....




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[SwedishHeat]

HT War Machine mk 3 is roughly $340. It is waitlisted at ssc and sold out in all but 1 retailer. Black panther at $215ish, same thing. Deadppol, bvs batman, bvs superman all sold out.

Too much focus on the same licenses i.e Iron Man, Star Wars and Dc Comics and not enough focus on older 80's Sci Fi and action licenses.

What an amazing world. We have too much and not enough all at the same time.

Again, without published edition sizes, there's no way to say if a "sell out" means a figure was a hot seller or not. They could have sold out of 500 units or 5,000.

 

[ali032373]

I think a more accurate statement for the manufacturer might have been the market does not support OUR making THIS figure, rather than the entire market is collapsing.