When will the 1:6 bubble pop?

[toystales]

As the prices of 1/6 figures continue to rise, I am scaling back my purchases. Nowadays, I only buy those figures I really like. And whenever possible, I buy loose/opened figures on auction sites for a lot less than the original MSRP. The reason is simple. I opened up 90% of my figures for display so I do not really need anything that is mint in box. This change in buying habit has helped me save a fair bit and it also means that I can continue to buy those figures I like.

 

[polonium]

u collectors in the usa and europe may not realize this, but u actually have it pretty good. complaining about a collectible that sets u back $150 to $200 sounds relatively petty to those of us who live in still-developing countries like malaysia.

i have to pay 4 times the amount in my equivalent currency for the same thing. imagine paying 600 us dollars for a regular edition hot toys t-600. then consider the fact that average salaries in developing nations are roughly 1/3 of what people get paid in developed nations (us, uk)... and u have a hobby that is sustainable only by fairly rich folk here. or at least those with a lot of disposable income.

now i'm not rich by any standard definition. but i do earn a pretty comfortable salary, which is considerably higher than average. and i STILL find this a very very expensive hobby to maintain. as it is, i have already chalked up a collection worth over 5 figures, in less than a year. that's unthinkable for most people my age. (not to mention i've gotten scathing lectures from my parents for "wasting" so much money.) as such, i have to be very discerning/careful as to what i choose to buy and what i have to forego. and i bet, much more careful than most of u guys and gals.


sorry if this comes across as a little off-topic but i thought i'd put the issue of pricing into a broader perspective for some of u.

I live in Thailand and I feel you.

 

[jkno]

u collectors in the usa and europe may not realize this, but u actually have it pretty good. complaining about a collectible that sets u back $150 to $200 sounds relatively petty to those of us who live in still-developing countries like malaysia.

i have to pay 4 times the amount in my equivalent currency for the same thing. imagine paying 600 us dollars for a regular edition hot toys t-600. then consider the fact that average salaries in developing nations are roughly 1/3 of what people get paid in developed nations (us, uk)... and u have a hobby that is sustainable only by fairly rich folk here. or at least those with a lot of disposable income.

now i'm not rich by any standard definition. but i do earn a pretty comfortable salary, which is considerably higher than average. and i STILL find this a very very expensive hobby to maintain. as it is, i have already chalked up a collection worth over 5 figures, in less than a year. that's unthinkable for most people my age. (not to mention i've gotten scathing lectures from my parents for "wasting" so much money.) as such, i have to be very discerning/careful as to what i choose to buy and what i have to forego. and i bet, much more careful than most of u guys and gals.


sorry if this comes across as a little off-topic but i thought i'd put the issue of pricing into a broader perspective for some of u.

You just told my story. I live in Europe, but Eastern Europe. Salaries here are low, I earn a bit more due to my ph.d. studies but that's all. I have to pay a lot on international shipping, 19% VAT tax and customs charges. Besides that more than once I got some "smart" answers from various stores/sellers/forum members stating they do not send to my country due to the problems with credit cards that occur here, but that is another story...

I save a lot before buying a figure or statue, and the main point is I focus. When talking about Star Wars I only collect Original Trilogy Imperials (with very few exceptions) and I also collect Terminator (T1 & T2 endoskeletons), Predator (P1 & P2) and anime, especially Masamune Shirow stuff (Ghost in the Shell, Appleseed, Intron Depot).

As for the collectible market itself this is to be seen. Many friends that were into collecting reduced their collections or even gave up. The raise in price and the global crisis affect us all, and people are starting to think what they are going to do in the future...

 

[OCP]

I kind of selfishly hope it does pop, because the clearance deals will be nuts.

There would be some deals, but eventually figures would just be more limited or not get made at all.

 

[holtrax]

I've been hearing for the last year that the hobby is slowing and contracting...that companies like Sideshow are cutting back on their 1/6th offerings in favor of more profitable statues and dios. 1/6th figures are virtually non-existant on Toy shelves at the store. Granted, the last year or so has seen a huge leap in the realization of the 1/6th figure -- meaning just how real one can look -- but maybe the market as a whole is tightening up.

I really have no idea.

All I can say is that I have a fixed number of movie characters that I wish to collect...and I am fast approaching completion. I'm quite certain a lot of 1/6th collectors feel the same way.

Yep totally agreed thats exactly the way i look at it. Have a fixed number of characters to collect and then leave it at that or you'll be spending money over and over again on the variant figures. With the pricing and all the variants that are coming out you'd be broke pretty fast if you were to buy a lot of these figures regularly.

Its honestly come to the point where now you pick up a figure, go on the internet the same day and see theres a new better variant of the figure being released soon. It instantly leaves you with a sense of need for the new figure and the want to get rid of your newly acquired purchase.

It makes you wonder how long it can last until the majority of collectors say enough is enough. Already i can see people have had to change their habits as evidenced from this thread alone. Im sure the steady price rise in this range and the sheer number of figures being released is begining to make people question the wisdom of spending so much money on them.

 

[ProgMatinee]

In a sense I think the bubble already popped. In 2006 SSC was making figures in edition sizes of 7000 or greater! Now what? 3000 at most? Thats really what a bubble means right? High demand? The demand ain't there any more if SSC had to cut production in half in the span of just 2 or 3 years.

 

[Darkseed]

It popped (for me) when HT announced they acquired the Marvel license. I immediately suspended collecting all other lines (except Dlx Joker & Batman).

If HT Marvel announcement turns out to be all hype, I can easily pick up were I left off. The market is so stocked with their product, I no longer worry about finding pieces later.

If HT Marvel announcement is what I hope then once the new house is finished, I will begin reducing my stock. I will focus strictly on Marvel & DC film adaption figures.

I am hoping for the later but I will wait and see.

 

[galactiboy]

Yep, at least the more mass-market nature of 1/6 collecting.

The original James Bond figure (Dr. No) from Sideshow had a price of $40 and an ES of 17,500. That is a total of $700,000 worth of merchandise from one figure... he was also part of a 2-pack with Dr. No... but not sure if that is in addition to, or part of the $17,500.

Then a comparable recent figure like the ANH Luke at $70 with a total ES of 4477 totalling $313,390 worth. You would think that Farmboy Luke would be able to crush the sales of James Bond... but a lot less produced and less than have the amount of merchandise value.

Although Vader is a bit different with a total 8477 ES and $125 totals $1,059,625 worth

 

[devlinboy]

i am priced out for the majority of 1/6 figs now. unless there is something mindblowing or unique i pass. the ss gi joe line is the only line i am into for 1/6. all my other 12" figures are going to be sold in the near future. i never owned a hot toys figure cause they are too $$$. and all my medicom stuff ended up losing its value almost instantly. so i am pretty sure i am done with that scale.

 

[ProgMatinee]

Galactiboy's math, to me, is the reason why prices have gone up. Its not solely about oil prices or material prices or labor prices, its that SSC or any company is not going to go through the process of selling an item to clear $50 X 4000= $200,000 when the same overhead investment got you $500k-700k just 2 years ago.

IMO SSC could have kept the lower price and produced in the 7,000 or 10,000 units if they wanted without significant quality drop, they just would have had to market to bigger places like Hastings and such.

But I think SSC was worried they would be falsely labeled as a low price low quality company (even though their products were still above par) just for not keeping up with Hot Toys.

To me, if SSC gets drilled by HT in the high end game its their own fault for abandoning and pricing out the larger "value" audience.

 

[nanjin]

It popped (for me) when HT announced they acquired the Marvel license. I immediately suspended collecting all other lines (except Dlx Joker & Batman).

If HT Marvel announcement turns out to be all hype, I can easily pick up were I left off. The market is so stocked with their product, I no longer worry about finding pieces later.

If HT Marvel announcement is what I hope then once the new house is finished, I will begin reducing my stock. I will focus strictly on Marvel & DC film adaption figures.

I am hoping for the later but I will wait and see.

While I was in HK last month, I heard from a non-official HT insider said that HT is targeting Medicom. HT is trying to take away "the Ultraman" and "Kame Raider" license from Medicom. Terrible price situation if the 1/6 market is monopolized. Terrible...

 

[TheObsoleteMan]

In a sense I think the bubble already popped. In 2006 SSC was making figures in edition sizes of 7000 or greater! Now what? 3000 at most? Thats really what a bubble means right? High demand? The demand ain't there any more if SSC had to cut production in half in the span of just 2 or 3 years.

I agree, the bubble has already popped, not just on 1/6, but the whole collectible figure market. As far as 1/6 goes, the small niche, high-end market is all that's left, and as the prices continue creeping higher that niche will continue to shrink.

 

[Blu Falcon]

While I was in HK last month, I heard from a non-official HT insider said that HT is targeting Medicom. HT is trying to take away "the Ultraman" and "Kame Raider" license from Medicom. Terrible price situation if the 1/6 market is monopolized. Terrible...

Imagine if HT acquired the license for Star Wars.

BTW, great discussion, guys. Glad to see I'm not the only one being very selective with my latest acquisitions.

 

[Josette]

Imagine if HT acquired the license for Star Wars.

Please, no. I'd rather HT focused on everything else.

 

[Jediguy]

I've started focusing and cutting back. The prices are getting ridiculous . Sometimes you buy this figure then when you step out of a store it hits you . How many other things that cash could have done.

I've started to cut back. Buying only figures i really like. I'd never say need coz you plainly don't need a figure haha. I'm generally sticking to the 1 figure per movie rule.

 

[TheObsoleteMan]

I've started focusing and cutting back. The prices are getting ridiculous . Sometimes you buy this figure then when you step out of a store it hits you . How much other things that cash could have done.

Yeah, that's why I'm sticking pretty much solely to customizing at this point. You drop $150 on a figure, take it out of the box and that's it. The wait is really the most exciting part, opening the actual figure becomes anti-climactic. With a custom you may end up spending that same amount over time, but at least it's a more involving process.

 

[tylerdurden]

I live in Thailand and I feel you.

You just told my story. I live in Europe, but Eastern Europe. Salaries here are low, I earn a bit more due to my ph.d. studies but that's all. I have to pay a lot on international shipping, 19% VAT tax and customs charges. Besides that more than once I got some "smart" answers from various stores/sellers/forum members stating they do not send to my country due to the problems with credit cards that occur here, but that is another story...

I save a lot before buying a figure or statue, and the main point is I focus. When talking about Star Wars I only collect Original Trilogy Imperials (with very few exceptions) and I also collect Terminator (T1 & T2 endoskeletons), Predator (P1 & P2) and anime, especially Masamune Shirow stuff (Ghost in the Shell, Appleseed, Intron Depot).

As for the collectible market itself this is to be seen. Many friends that were into collecting reduced their collections or even gave up. The raise in price and the global crisis affect us all, and people are starting to think what they are going to do in the future...

glad i'm not alone in this. cheers, guys.


as for the issue of the bubble bursting, i don't believe it will be a sudden collapse as a "pop" or "burst" implies. there will always be upcycles and downcycles in any industry. and the collectibles industry is no different. we seem to have reached a point where the industry and the market is over-saturated with product and consumers might not be able to keep up, budget-wise.

and with the world economy in its current state, consumers are becoming more disciplined and savvy about their spending. we want more quality and more value for money. of course, that's an age-old wisdom, but the collectibles industry has only recently entered a higher level of maturity with companies like hot toys and enterbay really raising the bar in terms of high-end quality. and in turn, consumers have become more sophisticated as well. it's just that we can't support everything that comes out and there's a LOT on the market now. the companies taht can't give the smart consumer what he/she wants will pay the price, so to speak. and eventually for them the bottom will fall out and prices will inevitably drop. but my feeling is this will only be a temporary thing, as with all things in life---nothing is forever. the industry will subsequently pick up again...

just my view on the situation.

 

[ArmoredFoe]

I agree, I remember picking up all the Friday the 13th Jasons that SS released a few years back adn they were about $40 to $50. It was perfect. A few years pass HT starts putting out figures with crazy prices and I was done. I still would like an Ironman and those predators, but I wont pay anything over $150 for a 12 inch figure. Even at $150 its getting crazy. I think most people will just start to be more selectible as far as the figures and franchises they choose to buy.

The only people this wont affect will be the people with tons of disposable income. Otherwise the average joe will have to be more selective. Just my 2 cents. I do beleive that HT is killing Medicom...if anything I think the only thing keeping Medicom afloat is there Kamen Riders and some of there Troopers, but personally I think SS makes better Troopers than Medicom.

 

[Darth Madden]

I have bought the Stormtrooper, Vader and I have the DX Joker on order and those are the only 1/6 figs I have bought all year so far. Its just getting WAY too expensive to collect them. I wanted Godfather and a lot of the Terminator figs but at $150+ I can't justify it anymore. For me they just are not worth that much for what they are.

 

[willocrew]

The bubble popped for me when Hot Toys started re-releasing figures.
The 2nd wave of figures always seemed superior imho.

So whenever Hot Toys or any other 1/6 company advertised a new figure, i'll always keep the plastic in the wallet and wait to see what happens. The thing is, after waiting for a couple of months, I start to lose interest in the product & when the re-released figure comes out, I end up not getting it at all.

Let's just say my last hot toys purchase was the battle damage Predator 2.