Will Hot Toys ever lose their value?

[mazda-rx7]

I guess I'm one big idiot to buy the old figures. Such as blade , wolverine and mark 1, all at high prices. It is only worth how much people are willing to pay. Be like water my friend( Bruce lee).

 

[Violator66]

I guess I'm one big idiot to buy the old figures. Such as blade , wolverine and mark 1, all at high prices. It is only worth how much people are willing to pay. Be like water my friend( Bruce lee).

I agree, just depends on the buyer. I feel that if it sells hot toys will make it again just to milk it for all its worth. Look at jack sparrow and now the mark 2. I wonder whats next?

 

[vangeta]

Maybe they are not idiots, just not as pure as you.

The ones that buy them at an inflated price then complains about re-releases are.

 

[thenammagazine]

I agree, just depends on the buyer. I feel that if it sells hot toys will make it again just to milk it for all its worth. Look at jack sparrow and now the mark 2. I wonder whats next?

In all fairness, the MKII is a completely different figure from the first one they gave us. But I'll give you Jack. He's part of their whole "Bromance with Depp" line.

 

[Lejuan]

The key point is that they won't go below MSRP. I'm even willing to bet that the ones that currently sell below now, in 10 years, will be at, if not over, their initial MSRP.

This is all that needs to be said. Thread closed.

 

[Violator66]

LOL I believe you on the bromance. Not knocking the Sweeney todd figure but for me, MY OWN OPINION, Its a huge waste of money for collectors and time for hot toys. Okay I said it now please sweeney todd hot toys fans please dont come an burn me out of my house

In all fairness, the MKII is a completely different figure from the first one they gave us. But I'll give you Jack. He's part of their whole "Bromance with Depp" line.

 

[JAROTO]

I will buy sweeney todd he looks awesome.

 

[Lejuan]

LOL I believe you on the bromance. Not knocking the Sweeney todd figure but for me, MY OWN OPINION, Its a huge waste of money for collectors and time for hot toys. Okay I said it now please sweeney todd hot toys fans please dont come an burn me out of my house

While I won't be picking up the ST figure, I am happy for HT to take on all sorts of licenses. Variety is the spice of life, and HT are doing the smart thing of keeping a broad customer base. The ST figure is the kind of figure that could bring in new fans of 1/6 imo.

 

[ZsaszSays]

I see it more as the commodity keeps the price up. Even if a figure looks "silly"...if the age and rareness are a lot, its value will only go up.

 

[work13]

... First off, as mentioned before NO ONE knows what Hot Toys even is. I know only one person that even knows what 1/6 scale collectibles are...
...not more than just a year ago I had no idea what Hot Toys even was. I knew about sideshow but back then they were not huge like they are now.

I was looking predator items up on ebay one day and I happened to just stumble upon Hot Toys figures and were blown away by how awesome they were. I think the reason these figures have gained in value so much over the years is because the new comers like me that want these awesome collectible figures and the only way to get them is to pay inflated prices AKA Elder Predator 2 in my case. $145 figure, now selling for $800+ easy...all day everyday. Yes I know at the moment this is a grail predator piece for hot toys but its a good example.

... As new collectors come into the 1/6th scale scene as I did, they will continue to want some of the older figures that hot toys are no longer making. I know hot toys recently has made some of there re-visit figures but I really dont believe they are going to go crazy and remake every single one of them.

Long as hot toys figures keeps impressing people, as it did me when I first laid eyes on these beauty's....they will retain there value. IMO.

I have to agree. A few years back I wasn't a big fan of 1/6 figure collecting, but after hot toys released the first T-800 endoskeleton I was hooked. The detail on that figure was the best I've ever seen for any figure at any scale. How the pistons on the arms and legs moved up and down as you moved the limbs, the articulated fingers etc...That figure is still pretty amazing, even by todays standards despite it being released 4 or 5 years back. The next figure that got me hooked was the Guardian pred, and after that it was all over.
As more people slowly discover the awesome detail of these hot toys figures, the more demand will go up.


As a toy company, you want to release as much product as possible to generate as much revenue and profit as possible. So it is in the best interest of any company to release as much product as they can so as long as there is demand. It seems as though hot toys does release a slew of new and different figures in rapid succession. Some people criticize hot toys for doing this, saying that it will devalue these figues because they are releasing so many different figures all at once. Maybe, maybe not.

I do agree that hot toys is churning out a lot of different figures in a short period of time(i.e: Jack sparrow, Ironman Mark 2, Sweeny Todd, Falconer pred, Tracker Pred, barney ross etc...) It's almost like Hot toys is churning out a new and different figure every month, but the keyword here is "different."


Let's say hot toys needs to sell 10,000 figures a month to be profitable. They can accomplish this goal in one of two ways:

Scenario A: Release 10,000 of one particular figure
Scenario B: Release 2000 of 5 different figures

Both scenarios would satisfy the business needs of hot toys as all they need to do is sell 10,000 figures. But only one of these scenarios would be a win/win for both Hot toys and it's customers: Scenario B.

For example, if hot toys were to release 10,000 Jack sparrows then yes, they would be flooding the market with this 1 figure. As a result, the price of the new Jack sparrow figure may not appreciate or skyrocket as high or as fast, or it may even go down in value. But if they were to release only 2000 Jack sparros, along with 2000 ironman Mark II's, 2000 tracker preds, 2000 Sweeny todds, and 2000 Barney Ross figures, then the price of each of these different figures will probably go up in value because the production run of each is low.

I think hot toys is adopting Scenario B. Rather than flooding the market by releasing a huge qauntity of one figure, they are releasing many different figures but each in small quantity.
In sum, hot toys maybe flooding the market with many different figures, but the prices may still stay high and keep going up because the quantity of each of these figures might be relatively low.

(Please note: I do realize that hot toys has done some re-releases of some figures, but even the re-releases of some of these figures are slightly different then their original counterparts. for example, as mentioned earlier the Ironman Mark II 1st version has tony's head where as this new one has Don's head.)

 

[nikoniko]

As may have been touched upon, collectibles (including high end 1/6) is a whole different animal from mass-produced toys. First and foremost, production time and costs are significantly more. It takes more skilled labor and time (both for training and for actual production) to churn out the detailed paintjobs and intricate outfits we've come to demand. Sure, the 1/6 market is small relative to mass-retail toys, and I'm sure 1/6 manufacturers factor that into their business models, but this also ties to the production expense in time and money. A small company like HT (it may be a big player in 1/6, but it ain't no Hasbro, Mattel, Takara or Bandai) can't afford to sink so much of its resources into large production runs of one figure. There's the risk of losing significant monetary and opportunity costs if it's not able to move product. I think HT has figured out it's customer base is small but demands quality. Accordingly, it releases small amounts of each product type, passing onto them the production costs (more diversification means less reuse of molds, parts etc.) - which the target audience is willing to pay. HT seems to even be testing the waters buy increasing prices by adding perceived added value in the form of accessories (chairs, and backgrounds) and gimmicks like PERS - from the customer response, it seems people are willing to pay (I too am guilty).

I just hope that HT tempers this enthusiasm for pushing the boundaries and realizes that there may be a limit at which many consumers may be turned off and refuse to buy (effectively bursting the bubble). HT could also seek ways of reducing costs. Companies are already looking beyond China for sources of cheap (and skilled labor) - perhaps HT can outsource some production to emerging labor sources like Vietnam and South Asia. Also, hopefully as HT grows, it can negotiate more favorable licenses - ie instead of just buying a limited license upfront, perhaps a license with revenue/profit sharing components built in (and with lower license fees or cost sharing components?).

All of this rambling aside, the secondary market price of HT products is really beyond their control (other than the limited production numbers) and I highly doubt factors into their business decisions. They are not seeing any material or monetary benefit, but they may gain some goodwill in the perception that their products are high quality and highly sought. Of course, I also see people put off by HT when they use soaring aftermarket prices as a gauge of retail prices.

Personally, none of my figures, HT or not, will lose value in my own eyes. I buy what I like, if it drops in value, no big deal as it doesn't change how I feel. If a new version comes along, I'll buy it too if I like it.

sorry for my longwinded musings.

 

[sixth_sith]

I find that the value fluctuates...

Let's say that you have a Wolverine, sealed at home right now... you know it's worth between $400 and $500 on ebay... so if you bought it at $160 or whatever it was... you'd be the man...

BUT


Let's say a new battle damaged Wolverine hit shelves next year... guess what, your figures just lost half it's customer base... yes might be worth $400 still but much much harder to sell, you'll be waiting and waiting to sell it.


Personally, I keep them until I see them becoming old and losing value, I got rid of my Enterbay figures WOD, FOF, ETD B, all because I knew they were becoming obsolite... and sure enough, in one or two more years, they will be.

 

[sixth_sith]

I guess I'm one big idiot to buy the old figures. Such as blade , wolverine and mark 1, all at high prices. It is only worth how much people are willing to pay. Be like water my friend( Bruce lee).

I was lucky enough once to buy a factory sealed Blade 2 wesley.

2 weeks later, I sold it for almost double $500

My justification was I'm not all that into wesley as I am into a rare figure... so I sold it.

But yeah, always behind the 8-ball... Bruce DX is my first pre-order from SS and I STILL went on ebay to buy the exclusive... hopeless...

 

[thenammagazine]

I find that the value fluctuates...

Let's say that you have a Wolverine, sealed at home right now... you know it's worth between $400 and $500 on ebay... so if you bought it at $160 or whatever it was... you'd be the man...

BUT


Let's say a new battle damaged Wolverine hit shelves next year... guess what, your figures just lost half it's customer base... yes might be worth $400 still but much much harder to sell, you'll be waiting and waiting to sell it.

Don't really understand that post. So long as he's going for above the $160 you initially paid, he's still retaining value.

 

[sixth_sith]

Don't really understand that post. So long as he's going for above the $160 you initially paid, he's still retaining value.

I just mean that there is a certain time to pull the trigger... yeah I guess in the example the person retains original $160 value but that big cash is gone thus loss in value...

 

[thenammagazine]

I just mean that there is a certain time to pull the trigger... yeah I guess in the example the person retains original $160 value but that big cash is gone thus loss in value...

We'll agree to disagree then. Though you lose out on cash, no "value" is lost.

 

[sixth_sith]

We'll agree to disagree then. Though you lose out on cash, no "value" is lost.

oh are we only talking original value? my bad

only seen a few like yao feng pirates figure, or the chicks figures like trinity and iron man girl with real hair forgot her name.

 

[work13]

As may have been touched upon, collectibles (including high end 1/6) is a whole different animal from mass-produced toys. First and foremost, production time and costs are significantly more. It takes more skilled labor and time (both for training and for actual production) to churn out the detailed paintjobs and intricate outfits we've come to demand. Sure, the 1/6 market is small relative to mass-retail toys, and I'm sure 1/6 manufacturers factor that into their business models, but this also ties to the production expense in time and money. A small company like HT (it may be a big player in 1/6, but it ain't no Hasbro, Mattel, Takara or Bandai) can't afford to sink so much of its resources into large production runs of one figure. There's the risk of losing significant monetary and opportunity costs if it's not able to move product. I think HT has figured out it's customer base is small but demands quality. Accordingly, it releases small amounts of each product type, passing onto them the production costs (more diversification means less reuse of molds, parts etc.) - which the target audience is willing to pay. HT seems to even be testing the waters buy increasing prices by adding perceived added value in the form of accessories (chairs, and backgrounds) and gimmicks like PERS - from the customer response, it seems people are willing to pay (I too am guilty).

...

Good analysis. I noticed you using some econ vernacular. You an econ major?

 

[Grosby]

:Let's say hot toys needs to sell 10,000 figures a month to be profitable. They can accomplish this goal in one of two ways:

Scenario A: Release 10,000 of one particular figure
Scenario B: Release 2000 of 5 different figures

[...]

I think hot toys is adopting Scenario B.

What ever side of the argument you fall on, this obviously isn't so. The "limited edition"/exclusive figures for which numbers are given are released in quantities that number a lot higher than what you're guessing an average release gets. What sense does it make for an "exclusive" to be double the release of what you speculate an average figure gets? Take the 10th Anniversary exclusives for one: 2,500 for Twentieth Century Boy and 4,000 for Michael Jackson and the Batman figures. For a non-exclusive figure what do you think, maybe they release about 20 more figures, or maybe 50? No, it's more likely close to the Scenario A that you dismiss - double and beyond.

This is not to say anything for or against the argument of whether or not that these figures are 'limited,' just that I think it's pretty much accepted that the average figure today is released in quantities much closer to 10,000 (either under or over) than it is to anything like 2,000.

 

[thenammagazine]

This is not to say anything for or against the argument of whether or not that these figures are 'limited,' just that I think it's pretty much accepted that the average figure today is released in quantities much closer to 10,000 (either under or over) than it is to anything like 2,000.

If that were the case, these things wouldn't be fetching $400, $600 and up on ebay a year after being released. 10k pcs sounds more appropriate for a limited edition collectible carried in TRU and other franchise toystores, not high-end collectibles geared at the collectibles market. The limited editions are considerably less than that. We know that only 500 pieces were produced worldwide for the con exclusive Guardian Predator.