The SM3 Medicom figures didn't fail to sell because of the license. They failed to sell because they are Medicom figures. I actually like them for what they are, but now that we are all spoiled with Hot Toys, it is hard to accept Medi RAH toys.
Even though the movie was the worst of the 3, the Spidey is gonna look pretty much the same from any movie (I know there are slight differences), and with SM 3, you get Symbiote Spidey as well as at least 2 desirable baddies instead of just 1 (I'm sure they will release Goblin and Doc Ock later on). Seems to be the best film to start with, IMO.
Of course, we all have our pet licenses we would prefer to whatever HT gives us, but I'm looking forward to what they do with these lines. The Tron figures should be awesome, irrespective of the film (they will look similar enough to the original to be iconic even if the new movie fails). And I don't care for Avatar, but I suspect that line will be a massive success.