I think I have to disagree, at least somewhat. You can accept that possibility, and I can, but I don't think the average consumer can, or ever will. Especially if it is presented to them in that way.
Video games have come to be accepted as format exclusive mostly because those exclusive games never exist outside of that one venue. Movies, on the other hand, have multiple venues, offering consumers many different opportunities to see them, and home video formats are only one piece of the puzzle.
Imagine for example, applying the format war to cable versus satellite dish. How accepting would consumers be if Dish Network had exclusive broadcast rights to some PPV movies, while Comcast had the rights to others. Would people happily (or even grudgingly) sign up for both services, just to ensure that they could see all of the movies they want? I really don't think so. Most would either pick a side, or pick neither side.
If movies only had one venue, namely high-def disc, then I might see your point as being more valid. But as it is, I think most people will simply take no side in the war, leaving both formats to languish on the fringe. After all, as much as they might want to see movies in high-def, they can still see them on DVD, or even broadcast HDTV.
The one thing I think could make the two format scenario plausible is wide availability of dual format players from all (or at least the major) manufacturers. That would send a signal to consumers that neither format could "leave them stranded" as so many now think.