Abby was my favourite character in part 2.
The original Ellie character was based off of Ellen Page ( now Eliot Page) No one disputes that. The production cycle of the first game was around the timeline when Juno was getting critical buzz and Page was seen as a rising star in Hollywood.
TLOU2 released around the timeline of Fighting With My Family and I'm still convinced Abby was partially based on Florence Pugh. Who was clearly a rising star with Little Women and Midsommar in tow.
Contenders for Abby, if she's cast will likely be
Julia Garner ( Ruth from Ozark ) as the clear favorite. Good actress. Proven. Critically acclaimed. Proven she can carry at least half of a hit show on her own. Might be seen as too old now.
Eliot Page, if only from external pressure, no matter how ridiculous a fight to the death with Bella Ramsey and Page would look on screen. (Like two 12 year olds fighting over a bucket of loose Legos... ) Mediocre performer in general ( Exhausting and pedantic in the Umbrella Academy series ) At this point, casting like this, that makes no sense but for virtue signaling, wouldn't surprise me at all.
Sydney Sweeney , HBO likes to keep the same actors in their stable. Sweeney is/was on Euphoria and White Lotus. She's about the right age and the right look and looks projectible to bulk up for the part.
Kaitlyn Dever, the original favorite for the Ellie role, might come back for this part
Liv Hewson ( Yellowjackets) can look the part but is pretty one dimensional. Not bankable as a headliner for a show.
Pugh is too big of a movie star to take this role now.
The issue with The Walking Dead was five fold. Killing Glenn was bad enough. I mean from a pure fandom perspective. People liked him, the other actors liked him, and he was there from the beginning. Second, AMC risked their larger scale international audience with that move. There are not many Asian male leads in Hollywood, so brutally killing one isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for non US markets. Third, the lead up to killing Glenn was seen as cheap and manipulative. Putting him under a dumpster and then trying to gaslight the audience was just plain stupid. Fourth, AMC kept pushing more story onto Glenn's killer, so Negan got massive plot armor and the show fell apart making everyone look incompetent for not being able to stop Negan. Fifth, AMC tried to push for Negan's redemption , which was a back door middle finger to the audience, trying to justify Negan to the audience as simply misunderstood and complex, instead of a one dimensional sadist as a pure hack like Kirkman wrote in the beginning in the comics. Anne Rice tried this with Lestat, tried to retcon him into some kind of bizarre anti-hero, and lost the last bits of her dying exhausted milked out fan base to do it.
IIRC, the TWD short term ratings peak was somewhere around 17 million viewers. They knew they couldn't hold that forever, but 15 became their reasonable consistent expectation by S5. At some point, post S9, they dipped to like 4-5 million. Sure Lincoln leaving and writing off Carl didn't help any. But AMC lost 2/3rds of their audience in a couple of years. Most of that built around being trapped into a contract with Jeffrey Dean Morgan ( they signed him and realized he was an anchor, not someone who would lift all boats ) and were too cheap to eat the money to just killed off his character.
If Mazin wants to kill of Joel, then fine. But to do it by S2 would be completely insane from a ratings perspective. Without the Joel/Ellie dynamic, you lose the appeal to family viewership. There are other reasons why the violence was toned down for this show ( they didn't want to drive away non gamers/suburban women viewers that sponsors and advertisers love so much in terms of demographics)
These are no longer the salad days of Sopranos, The Wire, Deadwood, Six Feet Under, Sex And The City, Rome, GOT, etc, etc for HBO. They don't really have a flagship show anymore. They aren't in a great position to risk losing up to half their audience for TLOU like AMC lost for killing off Glenn.
I don't see it from a money angle, but then again, I've seen more insane things happen ( Someone deciding to make Mindy Kaling's woke self loathing vanity project, Velma, for instance....)