Here is a quick (and quite poor really, hopefully someone can replicate my attempt more accurately) attempt to see how the profile matches up for woody and his on screen counter part. for the image, a picture of woody from toy story 2 is used. the medicom woody picture is contrasted slightly for visibility.
im sorry this looks so bad! but take a look at our results. Its pretty close in terms of facial accuracy, aside from slight differences in attempting to perfect the angle of woodys head in the movie pic. the major differences come from his neck and jowl areas. in the movie the neck is sloped towards his jaw, which is not how the medicom neck is, which we now know is a soft rubber (which i think is the worst part of the fig, obviously for accuracy and the idea of it degrading quickly). the jowls are slightly thinner in the movie version, and that is by a hair and may be just because of the neck positioning. looking further, the chin may also be a hair higher on the movie version. The eyes are different in this pic because the medicom woody is made to resemble the toy story 3 woody, which has glints in its eyes like the medicom woody does. all in all, pretty accurate, there may be more differences in a side view, but that is really difficult to find a still in the movie.
Now i'd like to give my opinion why it looks off model. The tone of the skin and the paint apps are way off, and its noticeable. this paired with the long scarf gives off that is it less accurate than it is. The other issue that comes from getting this to be super accurate is that woody is actually quite different from film to film. A quick look at pictures of woody in "toy mode" form all three films will confirm this. Another aspect that comes into play is that there is never been a real world woody used in film, as the movies are cgi. Light comes from unnatural locations that are mode to look natural in early pixar films, which may make look woody look even more different. take a look at the lighting differences in the three films, not only will you see an amazing improvement in technology and skill, but you will also see the lighting is quite different.