Mysterio has a higher chance of being made than Vulture given that it's a basic figure. I'd put money on it being at least prototyped.
Yeah, I think they'll definitely produce Mysterio or at least there's a stronger chance. I think when Hot Toys priced out their potential Vulture figure they probably estimated that the sales wouldn't meet expectations. It probably would've been a $500+, maybe even $600-$700 figure with the wings. Plus imagine the headaches with all the potential shipping damage to the wings (check out the countless returns on the Batmobiles/Tumblers for minor scratches/breaks/etc....all totally warranted when you spend that much).
The challenge also is that outside of a select few, there's a culture of "villains are unpopular" in Asian countries. So companies also tend to not "make" the bad guys because they don't sell as well as the heroes (this is especially prevalent in Japan and with the companies that make figures there). While villains tend to share more popularity in Western countries.