Like literally hundreds of figure announcements have come after the home video release. There's a million reasons why a figure can be delayed. From planned schedule so that they can keep a license active (in case you didn't know to keep the rights they have to announce and put up for sale new product from it) to prototype approval issues at marvel, to engineering issues. Drax was long after the film. Be out about the same time as the sequel. To force awakens figures to whiplash mk2 coming out after nearly four more films. Batman returns was shown around for nearly three years. There's more instances of hot toys announcing figures after a film has hit DVD release then there is ones announced before.
I just don't see it. I respect your knowledge and think you make valid points, but I believe the market says otherwise here. As far as licenses go, while what you're saying is true usually, I get a feeling Marvel and Hot Toys are on a different contract, otherwise we would be seeing a great deal more figures from older films.
Villians are for serious collectors. Outside the likes of Loki, few casual individuals are going to pick up a villain in place of a main character.
Loki has a fan base, and even his second iteration is still available at retailers.
The Mandarin is discounted to wonderful lows and still not moving stock.
Chuitari fit the above.
I was not around the hobby when Red Skull was released, so I am not available to comment on that.
Thanos is still sitting around too, and I heard very little excitement about the figure on the whole.
Whiplash is an Iron Man character and looks like cool armor, the later giving it some extra weight, but it still is available.
Iron Monger fits the above, minus availability.
That's not a good track record for a character type. It's not a safe investment, and Crossbones? He's got none of the bonus attributes the above have boasted. By the time this guy would even relatively come around to being available, at least two if not three Marvel films will have been released and collectors monies will go towards new main characters and new films. Few folks will buy this over, say, Dr. Strange or Star Lord. This is exacerbated for Yellowjacket, and he's got cool looks and more screen time. Why produce a product you know your own merchandise will cannibalize sales with?
The other figures you've mentioned, Drax and Returns Batman, are not ideal examples because:
The former is the last member of a team, he has weight for sale still (plus the number of production issues and licensing problems we all know about delayed him, yes). But even then, I doubt highly he will sell clean out, even if he hits shelves for the new film. They've learned their lesson doubling up with figures soon (Vision), so there's little chance we will see a V.2 any time soon. Plus, he's arguably the least popular Guardian.
The latter is, in short, Batman. There's always sales potential in that.
Surely, if this figure or Yellowjacket come out, I will eat crow and say I was wrong; I'm not above that. But based on a historical record, I just don't see this guy boding well for Hot Toys.
That's a really good point! 
Deffo need more baddies Hot Toys! 
