1/6 Market Bubble Popping

[hockeyflow33]

it really depends which item. things like Platoon, aren't coming back, period, so once the 2nd hand market is deprived of the item, their prices starts to go up. The recent figures you mentioned, most likely still have alot of them Brand New on ebay, that is why your 2nd hand ones lost money.

things like Ironman (minus exclusives), Batman, Marvel, Robocop you know they are gonna rerelease them. But still, once the existing stocks are getting lesser on the market, their prices will go up until the new rerelease being announced.

Chances are you probably bought alot of bandwagon stuffs like Avengers & Marvel. You know, pop stuffs, they call em pops because they pop once the bubble burst.

Pop is short for popular culture.

 

[potato]

Pop is short for popular culture.

nah, it's the sound of bubble bursting.

 

[thecapn]

I agree that the issue is oversaturation of certain characters, often times with little differences, and people assuming the new version will sell as well as the old. I have one Iron Man in my Marvel HT collection, and I have no need for anymore. I'd rather use my limited display space on a range of characters. I don't need 3 Caps, 15 Iron Men and 5 Thors, especially not at the prices we're paying nowadays. While I know that sounds like sacrilege to some - and you're OF COURSE welcome to feel that way - I have a feeling the majority of collectors are in that boat (and of course, as usual this forum is only a small segment of the most obsessive collector population).

I also agree that licenses from other companies are getting more exciting then the basically expected HT ones, and that's diverting collectors' funds elsewhere. I for one am foregoing a few upcoming HT releases to get the QMX Trek figures as they come out.

And while HT is still the tops in quality, a lot of other companies are getting darn near close, to the point where you can display them side by side with HT and they look like they fit right in. I have a friend who works on figures in China for one of these smaller companies, and he claims that it's getting to the point where he can buy factory runs in the same factories HT uses with the same workers, and get essentially the same results, as long as he pays attention, doesn't settle and keeps on them.

In addition, there was a time when bootlegs/unofficial releases couldn't hold a candle to HTs. Now, to at least a casual fan, you can't tell much of a difference. This isn't me advocating buying knockoffs or the knockoff market - but I'd be remiss not to mention that it exists. Heck, go look at some of Kit Chen's remolds on Facebook - it's hard to tell sometimes (not always, but sometimes). With prices increasing, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if more and more casual collectors are turning to these less scrupulous options to fill out their displays.

So let's see here: Other companies have more diverse releases/licenses, close to the same quality, and OH yeah, usually lower prices (by $20-$30 in most cases) compared to a HT, and there's a quality jump in knockoffs too. Does it really surprise anyone that HTs are suffering somewhat?

 

[sabin23]

I don't believe that the 1/6 craze will pass like baseball cards or beanie babies. I think these are the figures that collectors have always wanted, and they are only getting better. Sure, people are getting more selective as prices go up and companies produce more characters, but as long as the right characters are done well, the market is here to stay.

I understand the outrage every time a variant of the same Marvel/DC figure is released. But I believe people also have to realize there are new collectors entering this hobby all the time... For some of us, Captain America 3: Civil War might represent the 5th Black Widow variant released. But for others, this will be their first crack at adding ScarJo to their collection.

I'm a relative newbie in the hobby - it all started with the Reeves Superman in 2012 but I did not seriously go all in with 1:6 until 2014 & 2015. I missed out many previously released figures - although I ended up buying some of the older figures on the secondary market (above original MSRP), I was also grateful new (and improved) versions of the same characters were released based on their lateset movie properties. Last Fall, I was finally able to add Captain America (AOU) to my collection after missing out on the past Captain America releases.

The sculpts, bodies and tailoring keep getting better so I believe the market is here to stay. Escalating prices pushing collectors out could be cause for concern but if that's really an issue, the market will correct itself eventually as one previous poster said. This hobby is for the more serious hobbyists to begin with, who typically have plenty of disposable income so it's more insulated to the bubble bursting compared to the typical hobbyist markets.

Every figure I buy, I intend to keep. So I personally do not concern myself over values going up or down... but I definitely empathize with those that are concerned about their investment.

 

[Mr Walker]

Every figure I buy, I intend to keep. So I personally do not concern myself over values going up or down... but I definitely empathize with those that are concerned about their investment.

I don't. If you think toys are an investment, I say you deserve everything you get.

 

[Plastic Bateman]

I think it goes on a company-by-company basis, personally. Or even by specific license. I remember when ThreeA first started and were producing relatively tiny production runs their stuff went for crazy prices on the aftermarket, unless you were lucky enough to be a member of a community like KidRobot who'd sell to other collectors for more sane amounts. Now there's very few items they release that don't either hang around on the aftermarket for retail or less, or in the case of items sold through retailers, end up on clearance at some point.

Look at Hot Toys circa 2011. A lot of the stuff they released around that time soared in price on the aftermarket, and has still largely held its value. If you want some of the early marks of Iron Man suits, Avengers Loki, Batsuit Begins, Tech Noir Terminator, DX13, etc you're looking at significantly inflated prices even now. There was a palpable sense of excitement in the community around those releases, people went all-out to complete the Iron Man Mk I-VII lineup, get halls of armour for them, get all the Avengers figures, and so on. Then Hot Toys started cranking out Iron Man suits that had anywhere from two minutes to less than a second of screentime, constant reiterations of Captain America, Black Widow, Hawkeye, Thor, and other characters besides. Less emphasis on 'cult classics' in favour of the flavour of the month. Couple that with larger production runs, better distribution and latecomers jumping into the game thanks to sites like Kotaku raising awareness of Hot Toys' existence among people who weren't traditionally collectors and you have a saturated marketplace. I picked up the Iron Man Mk 33 Silver Centurion for less than £100 brand new last year, which is just insane.

The only figures that seem to have escalated in value recently from Hot Toys have been their OT Star Wars releases - so naturally, they're doing an unprecedented second production run. I'm not complaining, you'd be a fool to collect toys as an investment opportunity (put the money into stocks and commodities instead if all you care about is a return five years down the line). I imagine Hot Toys don't care about the aftermarket flatlining (in fact I can see Howard grinning ear-to-ear that nobody can make more money than him off the company's products) as long as their stock sells out to their international distributors and the local Hong Kong population keep buying.

I'd say the collector's bubble has largely burst outside of a few figures each year that, for whatever reason, go up in value. 1/6 in and of itself will be fine for the time being, though - although I don't feel the same excitement for new Hot Toys releases that I did back in the golden old days, that's for sure. Since releases like the Iron Man 2 figures, Batsuit Begins, various DX releases, etc it's very much felt like evolution, not revolution. Nothing has improved as significantly as the leap from what came before to those figures since, the innovation curve seems to have levelled out.

I predict hardened collectors looking for something interesting and representing good value for money are going to start getting into quirky original lines like Gangster's Kingdom from DAM more as the larger companies like Hot Toys and Sideshow edge ever closer to the $300+ mark for a barebones licensed 1/6 release.

 

[potato]

I think it goes on a company-by-company basis, personally. Or even by specific license. I remember when ThreeA first started and were producing relatively tiny production runs their stuff went for crazy prices on the aftermarket, unless you were lucky enough to be a member of a community like KidRobot who'd sell to other collectors for more sane amounts. Now there's very few items they release that don't either hang around on the aftermarket for retail or less, or in the case of items sold through retailers, end up on clearance at some point.

a reason why folks like 1000Toys like to sell their stuff in much lower quantities and elusive sales date announcements. to keep the aftermarket hot to maintain an exclusive brand, and it suits them because their products are harder & costier to copy.

 

[Voorhees27]

Imo most of us collect figures (or statues) because we're hobbyists. Leave this hobby (like I did for about 3 years) and miss the **** out of it and come right back to it eventually. There aren't many other hobbies left that present value right out of the package. Unless you're buying a new high end item every week you're still spending a lot less than say the dead ass trading card market.

 

[ali032373]

A few thoughts

1. Exclusives are non existent any more. Ex- BD IM my 6 sold out in like a day. But the MK 3 stealth die cast is STILL available maybe a yr after going up for PO.

2. Nothing sells out anymore. There was a time when stuff would sell out in PO. That almost never happens now as they produce a ton more than they used to. I got an email today from SS about $90 off a HT Electro today.

3. Most of the time you can get a new figure off eBay for cheaper than an Internet retailer. I don't PO any more. I just wait until the figure is released and hit eBay where I can get it for $20-$40 cheaper.

4. As mentioned there are just too many versions of the same figure, typically done with a minor variation that does not justify the new purchase or the interest for look X is too low. As a result the price just drops because the market gets flooded with variations.

5. At some point you've just collected everyone you want. They've done every version of the Terminator I want. It's maxed out. Same for the main cast of STar wars. Unless they start churning out figs for the Matrix, pro wrestlers, classic rock musicians, I can see an end to my collecting. Plus, they're not making any more classics.

So for me I think a corner has been turned. I don't see things going back to what they were in ~ 2007-2010.

 

[ironwez20]

I think it goes on a company-by-company basis, personally. Or even by specific license. I remember when ThreeA first started and were producing relatively tiny production runs their stuff went for crazy prices on the aftermarket, unless you were lucky enough to be a member of a community like KidRobot who'd sell to other collectors for more sane amounts. Now there's very few items they release that don't either hang around on the aftermarket for retail or less, or in the case of items sold through retailers, end up on clearance at some point.

Look at Hot Toys circa 2011. A lot of the stuff they released around that time soared in price on the aftermarket, and has still largely held its value. If you want some of the early marks of Iron Man suits, Avengers Loki, Batsuit Begins, Tech Noir Terminator, DX13, etc you're looking at significantly inflated prices even now. There was a palpable sense of excitement in the community around those releases, people went all-out to complete the Iron Man Mk I-VII lineup, get halls of armour for them, get all the Avengers figures, and so on. Then Hot Toys started cranking out Iron Man suits that had anywhere from two minutes to less than a second of screentime, constant reiterations of Captain America, Black Widow, Hawkeye, Thor, and other characters besides. Less emphasis on 'cult classics' in favour of the flavour of the month. Couple that with larger production runs, better distribution and latecomers jumping into the game thanks to sites like Kotaku raising awareness of Hot Toys' existence among people who weren't traditionally collectors and you have a saturated marketplace. I picked up the Iron Man Mk 33 Silver Centurion for less than £100 brand new last year, which is just insane.

The only figures that seem to have escalated in value recently from Hot Toys have been their OT Star Wars releases - so naturally, they're doing an unprecedented second production run. I'm not complaining, you'd be a fool to collect toys as an investment opportunity (put the money into stocks and commodities instead if all you care about is a return five years down the line). I imagine Hot Toys don't care about the aftermarket flatlining (in fact I can see Howard grinning ear-to-ear that nobody can make more money than him off the company's products) as long as their stock sells out to their international distributors and the local Hong Kong population keep buying.

I'd say the collector's bubble has largely burst outside of a few figures each year that, for whatever reason, go up in value. 1/6 in and of itself will be fine for the time being, though - although I don't feel the same excitement for new Hot Toys releases that I did back in the golden old days, that's for sure. Since releases like the Iron Man 2 figures, Batsuit Begins, various DX releases, etc it's very much felt like evolution, not revolution. Nothing has improved as significantly as the leap from what came before to those figures since, the innovation curve seems to have levelled out.

I predict hardened collectors looking for something interesting and representing good value for money are going to start getting into quirky original lines like Gangster's Kingdom from DAM more as the larger companies like Hot Toys and Sideshow edge ever closer to the $300+ mark for a barebones licensed 1/6 release.

I was about to start in investment in buying alot of figures (relatively new) and selling them online. IS that not a good idea? just wondering. I know holding on to these figures would be insane but buying them once they come out and selling them wouldn't be so bad right?

 

[rdean]

I was about to start in investment in buying alot of figures (relatively new) and selling them online. IS that not a good idea? just wondering. I know holding on to these figures would be insane but buying them once they come out and selling them wouldn't be so bad right?

Buy gold, all you need to do is read this forum for what the majority thinks of re-sellers/scalpers, and buying toys as investments......

 

[ali032373]

There was a time I was buying HT figures like savings bonds. I would buy them and cash them in (re sell) when i needed money. I'd buy one for $200 and resell at $220 which is a 10% profit 5 months later. Which is not bad at all.

What turned it for me were those 2 casual bruce lee figures that just TANKED in price. And for me that was the beginning of the end of the guaranteed profit.

 

[potato]

Imo most of us collect figures (or statues) because we're hobbyists. Leave this hobby (like I did for about 3 years) and miss the **** out of it and come right back to it eventually. There aren't many other hobbies left that present value right out of the package. Unless you're buying a new high end item every week you're still spending a lot less than say the dead ass trading card market.

i feel sad you take up hobbies based on their value. might as well not have a hobby. even though financial constraint does affect which hobby you can afford or willing to take up.

 

[potato]

A few thoughts

1. Exclusives are non existent any more. Ex- BD IM my 6 sold out in like a day. But the MK 3 stealth die cast is STILL available maybe a yr after going up for PO.

2. Nothing sells out anymore. There was a time when stuff would sell out in PO. That almost never happens now as they produce a ton more than they used to. I got an email today from SS about $90 off a HT Electro today.

3. Most of the time you can get a new figure off eBay for cheaper than an Internet retailer. I don't PO any more. I just wait until the figure is released and hit eBay where I can get it for $20-$40 cheaper.

4. As mentioned there are just too many versions of the same figure, typically done with a minor variation that does not justify the new purchase or the interest for look X is too low. As a result the price just drops because the market gets flooded with variations.

5. At some point you've just collected everyone you want. They've done every version of the Terminator I want. It's maxed out. Same for the main cast of STar wars. Unless they start churning out figs for the Matrix, pro wrestlers, classic rock musicians, I can see an end to my collecting. Plus, they're not making any more classics.

So for me I think a corner has been turned. I don't see things going back to what they were in ~ 2007-2010.

Nothing sells out because many online stores starts taking PO, so HT gets more orders, they produce more, compared to back then only few online shops offer HT. doesn't even include many small sellers on facebook.

i don't know how ebay price can be cheaper unless the online stores you referring to inflated their price heavily, currency conversion + profit margin, since ebay cost around 15% to sell including postage.

there will be another time for 1/6, when they implement robotics into the toys. one day, a 1/6 Ironman will really fly.

 

[potato]

I was about to start in investment in buying alot of figures (relatively new) and selling them online. IS that not a good idea? just wondering. I know holding on to these figures would be insane but buying them once they come out and selling them wouldn't be so bad right?

supply & demand, as long as the figure doesn't have bad design out of box like Broken arms, when there's only a few units of an item left in the market the price will go up.

would be wise to stock up rare figures and resell them when the market lacks them. but many of these high price items takes really long time to sell, lots of people want to buy them, but either it's too expensive or they still saving up the money.

i would say focus on those easy to sell items and target a 10-15% margin, and focus on mid range priced items around $100-$200.

if you are worried about 1/6 market burst, you can always stock up other categories toys.

but to make a living out of it you really need to stock alot of stuffs and have lower margin, quick in & out. Buying has really slowed down since like 2007 not just Toys but everything non-essential.

 

[Voorhees27]

i feel sad you take up hobbies based on their value. might as well not have a hobby. even though financial constraint does affect which hobby you can afford or willing to take up.

Not too sure you understood my post. I was comparing the figure/statue hobby to most other collectible hobbies (sorta off topic , sorry) and was trying to say that this hobby is still best. I collect what I like.

 

[hockeyflow33]

supply & demand, as long as the figure doesn't have bad design out of box like Broken arms, when there's only a few units of an item left in the market the price will go up.

would be wise to stock up rare figures and resell them when the market lacks them. but many of these high price items takes really long time to sell, lots of people want to buy them, but either it's too expensive or they still saving up the money.

i would say focus on those easy to sell items and target a 10-15% margin, and focus on mid range priced items around $100-$200.

if you are worried about 1/6 market burst, you can always stock up other categories toys.

but to make a living out of it you really need to stock alot of stuffs and have lower margin, quick in & out. Buying has really slowed down since like 2007 not just Toys but everything non-essential.

A 10-15% margin???? After PayPal fees, shipping, packing, etc you're going to need at least 40% to make it worthwhile, 50% if you're on eBay. Not to mention the amount of work to make $50 on a figure isn't worth it.

 

[EVILFACE]

Not too sure you understood my post. I was comparing the figure/statue hobby to most other collectible hobbies (sorta off topic , sorry) and was trying to say that this hobby is still best. I collect what I like.

Yup, collect cause you like it. Not for any potential value increase.

 

[potato]

A 10-15% margin???? After PayPal fees, shipping, packing, etc you're going to need at least 40% to make it worthwhile, 50% if you're on eBay. Not to mention the amount of work to make $50 on a figure isn't worth it.

10-15% margin is taking into account all the cost to sell a product. i mean isn't that how businesses calculate margins (maybe excluding rentals/labors & other operating cost)?

surely you include the shipping cost to your sales price even when you are offering free shipping.

you can't have a blind margin of 40% over the original value, because some shipping cost may cost much more than 40%, that is why you determine your margin after taking all cost into it.

for you as a collector who sell maybe 2-3 figures $50 might be a pain for you to pack & ship, but for most shops 10% margin is quite high. I mean there aren't many investment that yields 10% per annum constantly. here we're talking about flipping a 10% over maybe 3-4 months.

 

[hockeyflow33]

10-15% margin is taking into account all the cost to sell a product. i mean isn't that how businesses calculate margins (maybe excluding rentals/labors & other operating cost)?

surely you include the shipping cost to your sales price even when you are offering free shipping.

you can't have a blind margin of 40% over the original value, because some shipping cost may cost much more than 40%, that is why you determine your margin after taking all cost into it.

for you as a collector who sell maybe 2-3 figures $50 might be a pain for you to pack & ship, but for most shops 10% margin is quite high. I mean there aren't many investment that yields 10% per annum constantly. here we're talking about flipping a 10% over maybe 3-4 months.

So you'll spend $1k on say 4 figures and if you're in the US you'll be looking at shipping between $20-35 depending on which figure. Now include double boxing supplies because no one wants them shipped in the brown shipper. Don't forget packing supplies and your time spent at the office supply store because their prices are cheapest and oh don't forget about the cranky post office guy who re-weighs your box and makes you spend another $1.75 on postage because your weight was off by 1 lb.

That needs to be done 4 times to make $100 in your scenario.

Most of these figures are not investments now and if the OP to the selling was serious and thinks this is a good idea he's in for a very rude awakening and you shouldn't be encouraging him to lose money.