Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince--SPOILERS!!!

[Darklord Dave]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Potter has kid appeal and with kids out of school they're more likely to repeat.

Just read that Twilight has moved into this spot - that's a smart move.


I'm betting Entertainment Weekly is a bit pissed though - here's their FALL MOVIE ISSUE:

...and they're also a Time Warner company

 

[Buttmunch]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Potter has kid appeal and with kids out of school they're more likely to repeat.

Just read that Twilight has moved into this spot - that's a smart move.


I'm betting Entertainment Weekly is a bit pissed though - here's their FALL MOVIE ISSUE:

...and they're also a Time Warner company

And kids are out of school during Christmas break - not long after this would have come out, so the summer argument holds no water. WB is just smoking crack and pissing everyone off.

 

[Darth Waller]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Potter has kid appeal and with kids out of school they're more likely to repeat.

Just read that Twilight has moved into this spot - that's a smart move.


I'm betting Entertainment Weekly is a bit pissed though - here's their FALL MOVIE ISSUE:

...and they're also a Time Warner company

Owned!

 

[YoNoSe]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Saw the trailer in front of Clone Wars tonight. I felt bad for all the people who were chattering excitedly at the end when "November" appeared.

 

[tomandshell]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I wanted to shout, "July 2009" after it played and everyone was chattering excitedly.

 

[YoNoSe]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I wanted to shout, "July 2009" after it played and everyone was chattering excitedly.

"You will be a year older before you see this! Stop chattering!"

 

[KAOSINLA]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

And kids are out of school during Christmas break - not long after this would have come out, so the summer argument holds no water. WB is just smoking crack and pissing everyone off.

Believe me I hate this decision. I always thought of HP as somewhat of a holiday season movie w/ Halloween and those following it. However, Dave is correct in simple supply and demand. And, in this case it's time.

Revenue is made on repeat viewings. The primary audience is individuals still in school, so that equals out to about 45 days in theaters before the school year begins with the July release. In contrast, you got about 3 days for Thanksgiving and then a 3-week school session before X-mas break. X-mas holds about 2 weeks of off time. In this holiday time period, a studio has to contend w/ Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Years Eve, and New Years Day, along with shopping time, the traveling time of familiies visiting relatives, family priorities of the Holiday gathering rather than movies, and possible inclement weather. In contrast, this summer release has no holiday or school interruption and only has to contend w/ vacationing families, which movie viewing on vacation is usually not an interference with plans.

This by no means is meant to say that HBP wouldn't have made huge revenue this year, but says the potential is greater w/ the July release. Uninterrupted product time access and availability has much more potential than interrupted.

 

[galactiboy]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I wanted to shout, "July 2009" after it played and everyone was chattering excitedly.

Yeah, I thought the same thing... cool looking trailer too

 

[Darth Waller]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Believe me I hate this decision. I always thought of HP as somewhat of a holiday season movie w/ Halloween and those following it. However, Dave is correct in simple supply and demand. And, in this case it's time.

Revenue is made on repeat viewings. The primary audience is individuals still in school, so that equals out to about 45 days in theaters before the school year begins with the July release. In contrast, you got about 3 days for Thanksgiving and then a 3-week school session before X-mas break. X-mas holds about 2 weeks of off time. In this holiday time period, a studio has to contend w/ Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Years Eve, and New Years Day, along with shopping time, the traveling time of familiies visiting relatives, family priorities of the Holiday gathering rather than movies, and possible inclement weather. In contrast, this summer release has no holiday or school interruption and only has to contend w/ vacationing families, which movie viewing on vacation is usually not an interference with plans.

This by no means is meant to say that HBP wouldn't have made huge revenue this year, but says the potential is greater w/ the July release. Uninterrupted product time access and availability has much more potential than interrupted.

The problem with this theory is that the summer is flooded with big releases, so there's really a shorter window for repeat business as opposed to the fewer big releases that the fall would have.

 

[KAOSINLA]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

The problem with this theory is that the summer is flooded with big releases, so there's really a shorter window for repeat business as opposed to the fewer big releases that the fall would have.

This is just an example of the intricacies of microeconomics. There could be doubt with a new movie entering the season with low-entry barriers and many firms with an expected/theorized audience level. However, with an established franchise movie elevating it over the homogenous products scale, the model of perfect competition is skewed or utterly erased when market power is established. Given the audience is already in place, product timing and placement becomes the key component in the capital gains equation superceding competition risks especially with the inclusion of advanced future release knowledge.

And for this reason summer movies have historically outperformed other seasonal releases (Here's some ranking with just U.S. Domestic stats).

Titanic: December 19th, 1997
Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope: May 25th, 1977
The Dark Knight: July 18th, 2008
Shrek 2: May 19th, 2004
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial: June 11th, 1982
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace: May 19th, 1999
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: July 7th, 2006
Spider-Man: May 3rd, 2002
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith: May 19th, 2005
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return of The King: December 17th, 2003
Spider-Man 2: June 30th, 2004
The Passion of the Christ: February 25th, 2004
Jurassic Park: June 11th, 1993
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers: December 18th, 2002
Finding Nemo: May 30th, 2003
Spider-Man 3: May 4th, 2007
Forrest Gump: July 4th, 1994
The Lion King: June 15th, 1994
Shrek the Third: May 18th, 2007
Transformers: July 2nd, 2007

 

[UTtoyfan]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I just got back from Universal Orlando last night and just read about the delay of Half Blood Prince this morning.
I was all excited too after seeing the construction and signs up for the "Wizarding World of Harry Potter" at Islands of Adventure. At least I don't have to wait until 2010 for the movie.
<a href="https://s155.photobucket.com/albums/s285/uttoyfan/?action=view&current=db_2008_0802_Potter_20101.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s285/uttoyfan/db_2008_0802_Potter_20101.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

 

[Darth Loki]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Anyone else think that WB is pushing this back to the next fiscal year because TDK blew away everyone's projections by about $300 million (the same $300 million this movie will make)? Knowing that they've already exceeded their fiscal goals for the year they are saving their next 'sure thing' for next year to help with the following years numbers?

I see ^^^^ like this all the time and now that I've been thinking about it, am almost 100% sure this is the reason behind the push back.

 

[Darth Waller]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I don't doubt that they're moving it to 2009 because of TDK.

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Anyone else think that WB is pushing this back to the next fiscal year because TDK blew away everyone's projections by about $300 million (the same $300 million this movie will make)? Knowing that they've already exceeded their fiscal goals for the year they are saving their next 'sure thing' for next year to help with the following years numbers?

That is EXACTLY the reasoning. Time Warner is a public company and it's all about avoiding "negative growth" and keeping stockholders happy.

If TDK and HP came out this year, 2008's box office numbers would have been through the roof and 2009 (with no other tent-pole thanks to the strike) would have flatlined. They're trying to avoid that by putting HP into the 2009 fiscal year. And in doing so Summer 2009 is better for all involved that Fall 2009.

It's annoying, yes. And I can completely understand why HP fans will be frustrated and disappointed. But it actually makes sense from a business POV.

 

[The Josh]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

That sucks. Ah well gives us something to look forward to next summer I suppose.

 

[OSCORP]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

HP should be seen in the fall not the scorching summer. It has that Fall/Halloween/winter vibe about it.

It was the only movie left this year i was willing to see in a theater.

 

[KitFisto]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Anyone else think that WB is pushing this back to the next fiscal year because TDK blew away everyone's projections by about $300 million (the same $300 million this movie will make)? Knowing that they've already exceeded their fiscal goals for the year they are saving their next 'sure thing' for next year to help with the following years numbers?

I see ^^^^ like this all the time and now that I've been thinking about it, am almost 100% sure this is the reason behind the push back.

I said exactly the same thing on another message board.

 

[dunedain]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

HP should be seen in the fall not the scorching summer. It has that Fall/Halloween/winter vibe about it.

That is my feeling as well. It is also fall/winter in the movies it just gives a good feeling.

It was the only movie left this year i was willing to see in a theater.

Same here. I'm pretty pissed of about it all, but what can we do about it?
I just hope that they use this additional time to make the movie better.

 

[Darth Loki]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

I said exactly the same thing on another message board.

You've been seeing another board

And to think, I trusted you

 

[pixletwin]

Re: Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

If making more HP money means keeping inhouse indi-rock acts like the Flaming Lips signed I can live with the delay.