What is the upside?
For McConaughey I mean. The first game of TLOU has a complete narrative. A complete character arc for both Joel and Ellie. There is close to nowhere left to go. That there is doubt and an uncertain future is a critical function of the end of the storyline. You can't reboot a S2 or a 2nd video game without unwinding all you achieved in in the first game.
The 2nd game incited fandom. Not by a little, by a lot. There are themes in TLOU 2 and even some from the DLC that might have gotten accolades and virtue signaling in 2021, but it's not going to get it in 2025. The entire country, and the entire industry, faced a total complete carpet bombing of a repudiation of identitarian themes in any mass media/mass entertainment format.
Why attach yourself to something, that if it works, will only enrage fans and your viewer base and link you to that outrage? For an actor or actress with choices, why put yourself in that position. For the Ellie role, some young actresses and some of their handlers will not want to have that performer play a certain kind of role with a certain kind of lifestyle. From a career outlook perspective, you can do it, but you risk being typecast in any role you take. Reese Witherspoon is the classic test case of someone who turned down a ton of huge money making roles, because she did not want to be typecast in a certain direction. One could argue that Michelle Forbes made the right decision refusing to take a full time Star Trek role, to avoid that same risk.
Druckmann and Halley Gross can write whatever story they like. It's their story. That's OK. But they created a story that made a lot of this narrative extremely difficult to put on screen, market and cast. Hugh Jackman is chasing his first Oscar. How does any project he take moving forward help him in that direction? How does either starring in a video adaptation that might bomb help him? And if it succeeds, he'll be remembered for being Tiger Woods's in the dome and screaming for his life while pissing off fans all over the world at the exact same time. How does that help him moving forward? Josh Brolin has a much thinner awards resume than Jackman. How does doing TLOU help him under the same conditions.
If you don't have a locked in legacy IP like a Star Wars or Batman or Harry Potter, you need pure bankable star power or you need a great concept. Fox's Prison Break was a great concept that was able to overwhelm all the other flaws within it's production. It has real international legs. But once they actually got out of that prison, you could see the fracture points, which is why the show put all the major players back into yet another prison. If you get Jackman, you can entice a higher profile actress to play Tess. Then you have more to appeal to investors and the network to get a longer season, bigger budget and more push to get a stronger supporting cast.
There's a reason TLOU spends two full episodes away from Joel and Ellie together. There's a reason it's a short season. There's a reason there's a very thin level of total interaction with Pascal and Ramsey. No one thought this was going to be a hit. The entire scope of TLOU2, the game, from a narrative perspective, is to just plainly instigate against the existing fandom. You can do it, but it comes with a cost. The lack of flexibility to move this story to the televsion medium and the limitations inherent, including casting, is part of that price.