The Iconic sculpt gets a pass because the standards are lower for smaller companies and custom pieces. If that same sculpt had HT's logo on it, people would be pointing out how inaccurate it looks.
I like the hair, nose and the shape of the face, but the eyes look off and so does the mouth, imo. Overall, I prefer the HT sculpt. Can it be better? Probably, but I'm not sure what can make it better.
Normally I feel that way myself but in this case I think I'd still give it to the custom. Getting the general shape right is important and I feel Hot Toys ****s this up all too frequently (*cough*any given Arnie figure*cough*). The Iconic sculpt seems to have nailed the shape of Keanu's head and the hair looks much cooler, it's got a bit of looseness to it at the hair-parting where Hot Toys - as usual - goes for a tight, rounded off, overly neat and symmetrical look.