I'm very curious to see what its box office is with the 3D surcharge stripped away.
Which few will, because sensationalism sells more than reality. But even so, Avatar ranks a very respectable 34 in adjusted box office.
I doubt this will happen. Avatar is enjoying tremendous novelty. Once that wears off after the slew of 3D flicks on the way this year, any sequel is going to have to survive on its own merits. And like it or not, almost all the buzz about this film is the 3D effects. Very few people seem to talk about the story or characters. I don't see a real shelf life here.
What I do see is more December event pictures in an effort to replicate the "no real competition" landscape that's helped Avatar climb so quickly. Compare this to The Dark Knight, which earned its box office in weekly battles against summer blockbusters, and without 3D gimmicks or a record budget.