As of late evening Beijing time on Friday, Justice League had closed in on a $16 million opening day box office total, excluding Thursday previews and midnight screening collections. Assuming the picture stays on its current trajectory, it will finish its debut weekend with around $50 million. If it then follows that with a 2.1x lifetime multiple on its first weekend—an optimistic projection, to be sure—it will finish with a $105 million PRC total, exactly what Ant-Man collected all by his tiny little self last year.
That’s the optimistic case. A slightly more pessimistic—but equally plausible—scenario, would have Justice League earn a China lifetime multiple of 1.8 times the opening weekend figure, to take it to a $90 million total. Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, et. al. would in that case just equal the box office take that Wonder Woman earned this past summer.
In neither case would Justice League reach $1 billion in global box office receipts. It would need China to kick in at least $150 million in collections, and probably more like $200 million, to cross into ten-figure box office territory.
The billion dollar box office mark wouldn’t guarantees profitability for Justice League; it cost Warner Bros. (NYSE:TWX) over $300 million to produce the film and probably $200 million to market, and with more than half the box office receipts going to theater owners, the picture will need to rely far more on home video, digital distribution and TV sales than on box office to break into the black. The billion dollar figure is important mainly because Warner Bros. needs it for company optics—to have all of its biggest superhero characters together earn less than, say, Minions or Finding Dory or Captain America did, would be a profound embarrassment for the company, not to mention a blow for Zack Snyder, Kevin Tsujihara, and for Warners' DC studio.