I too have no idea - beyond the blonde hair - why anyone thinks the kid was Aaron.
And the kid wasn't refering to Sawyer - no reason to assume that. Clearly Smokey was trying to recruit Sawyer, just as he was Sayid. I think he was refering to Jack, the contender that Jacob was working to recruit, but it's debatable. What I think is obvious is he was refering to SOME contender. I don't think that Smokey or Jacob can't actually kill anyone they want - but it's a 'rule', and Jacob was reminding Smokey of it, lest he get a little too out of control. Which leads us back to the possibility that Smokey isn't as out of control as we are being led to believe, and rather still playing out the 'testing' of the contenders.
Likewise, Dugen could have killed Sawyer. He didn't because he's still playing by the 'rules'. That fact itself is interesting - if there are rules to what they do, but Jacob is really dead dead, then why would Dugen still be following them? That's why I think that much of what is being presumed philosophically - who's good, who's bad, what their motivations are, etc. - are going to end up turned upside down before the end.
It's certainly going to be an interesting 12 hours of television...