First time poster in this thread, and in the interests of full disclosure, I am a Dallas fan (Yes, I know I will take a lot of crap for this). Without sounding like too much of a homer, I think Dallas wins, but in a close one: no way that Dallas handles Minnesota as easily as they did Philadelphia. My keys to the game:
1) Vikings Defense vs. Cowboys Offense: The Vikings have two great run stoppers in the Williams boys. While Dallas’ O-Line is huge, I think Dallas will be hard pressed to run the ball up the gut. Dallas has been thriving off that lead draw option where Romo fakes the quick screen then hands off to the tailback. I don’t think this will work that well against Minnesota. I think Dallas needs to run more counters and tosses to get away from the middle of Minnesota’s O-line, using second string TE Martellus Bennett and third string TE John Phillips as extra blockers. I think both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, both shifty runners, will be used more than Marion Barber III to take advantage of their speed on turf. Dallas will definitely need to use a back or extra TE to chip Jared Allen; that would allow Ray Edwards a one or one match up with Marco Columbo, but that’s a better match up for Dallas than Jared Allen being singled up against Flozell Adams. Romo has been adept at escaping the rush, but he needs to play under control like he has been and not try to go for it all when the pocket breaks down. The Vikings will definitely roll a safety towards Miles Austin’s side of the field, leaving Roy Williams with single coverage. If the Vikings have Antoine Winfield in single coverage on Roy, the Cowboys have to take advantage of that match up every time. Winfield is an awesome DB and has been one of my favorites for a long time, but Roy has a huge size advantage over Winfield, plus I don’t think Winfield is 100% healthy. One thing that I think effects the Vikings D tremendously: missing EJ Henderson at the Mike LB position.
Just a random thought: Madieu Williams has been pretty good at Free Safety for Minnesota this year, but if Darren Sharper were still with Minny, I’d be a little more worried.
2) Dallas Defense vs. Vikings Offense: The weapons that Minnesota has at the skill position are scary, and if Minnesota had played Dallas last year or the year before in the playoffs, I’d be really scared. But the biggest improvement in this Dallas defense is their secondary. Terrance Newman (though prone to the occasional bad game) is a legitimate shut down corner, but I would argue that Mike Jenkins has been Dallas’s best CB this year. The difference between his play this year and last year has been night and day. Ken Hamlin has always been able to cover, and the pickup of Gerald Sensabaugh has been huge. After so many years of Roy Williams being burned in coverage, having Sensabaugh back in coverage has allowed Dallas to blitz with impunity. The only question mark in my mind is matching nickleback Orlando Scandrick with Percy Harvin. Dallas did a great job on Desean Jackson, who is a burner just as Harvin is. I’d probably put Newman in the slot against Harvin. Even with Bernard Berrian’s speed and Percy Harvin’s emergence, I think Sydney Rice has the most chance of success against Dallas’ secondary. He dwarfs both Jenkins and Newman. Up front, Minny will be hard pressed to deal with Dallas’ team speed on turf. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer at outside linebacker and Jay Ratliff at Nose Tackle will bring the pressure, and Dallas will occasionally rush Keith Brooking and Bradie James. Brooking has been a godsend this year, being a huge upgrade over Zach Thomas. Hopefully, these two can more than limit AD’s production. The key obviously is Adrian Peterson. If Favre is forced to throw 40+ times against Dallas’ pass rush, there will be turnovers. If AD lights it up and keeps the pass rush honest, watch out.
3) Head coaches: Who do you trust more: Brad Childress’ offensive game plan or Wade Phillips’ defensive scheme? At this point, I would have to go with Phillips. Childress seems a little too rigid and unwilling to change his game plan to me. What stands out to me is his unwillingness to let Favre “feel” the game and adjust accordingly; I can only think of Minnesota’s last game against Chicago where the Vikings were coming back. Favre wanted to speed it up and maintain the spread personnel, but Childress rushed the Vikings jumbo package onto the field. Yes, the Vikings came back and took the game to OT, but I still don’t like Childress’ “my way or the highway” stance. Neither coaches will be considered Hall of Fame material, but at this point, I believe Phillips has a better scheme for his D than Childress does with his offense.
Well, my two cents. Take it for what you will. Counter arguments are more than welcome; “you’re an idiot ‘cause you’re a Cowboys fan” arguments are not. I like to hear opposing viewpoints from knowledgeable football fans.
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