I would say none of them have a great likeness to Margot.
Well the bubblegum is covering up her mouth and the smile one is capturing the character, which is why the likeness looks better on those sculpts. Similar to how people think Sideshows Joker looks like Ledger because of the Joker expression.
I'd also argue, and argued previously on this thread, that it's P1's lighting on the site photos doing a complete disservice to the portraits. I'll try not to repeat any of those points, but my main point is similar to how Michael Crawford, who posts his reviews here and on mwctoys.com, evaluates likeness versus "lifelike-ness". If you look at the Deadshot site photos, Will Smith's likeness is unquestionably there because it's more distinct, retains his characteristically goofy-looking (IMO) serious facial expression and has painted details like his beard stubble that are dark enough not to get washed out in the overlighting. However, comparing it to the Hot Toy, which has a more blank expression, the HT looks more lifelike because the overlighting against the translucent skin on the P1 site photos gives it a porcelain doll effect. Even the masked portrait, which I'm sure has the same if not more sculpted detail as the HT to replicate the fabric texture, looks plasticky due to how the lighting is reflecting off it. Once you see the unrealness of it, it's almost impossible to unsee.
This hurts Harley and other female pieces with translucent resin portraits more because they lack the details to compensate for the waxy look overlit photography gives them. If the first poorly lit in-hand photos of 1:2 Superman and Joker didn't also suffer from this, I would be more willing to concede Harley's likeness is off more than the HT. But I think it's evident how much properly lit in hand photos of the latter did for the likeness regardless of how one feels about the the statue's bored expression. This is 100% Ledger:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWGHOTblkcc/
The HT Harley, to me, misses on two marks, both slight (like I said, I love the sculpt overall): the back teeth are too prominent and the eyes are too small. I believe I understand how both happened and that's from the sculpt being based around the limited promo materials they likely had to work with . . . including the exact photo they based the sculpt on, which ended up on the Empire magazine cover. That photo doesn't show the back teeth at all. However, if HT didn't sculpt them, it would've been seen as oversight for a portrait this detailed, similar to how some owners are commenting about the back of the mouth being noticeably connected to the tongue in one piece. Robbie's molars do show when you're staring straight into her gaping smile in certain scenes, but not at every angle like the HT (Google image search "margot robbie harley quinn laughing." Her tongue covers her back teeth in all but
this one GIF and the HT still looks comparatively exaggerated. The recent BVS Wonder Woman appears to have
exaggerated Gadot's front teeth for that specific expression as well.) Same issues with the negatively-received prison outfit version: just the eyes being too small and the lips being too round is enough to throw it off and make it look like a clownish caricature of her when I'd argue the sculpt is otherwise on par with the first.
The P1 statue however gets those two elements right, or at least better (the eyes might actually
still be too small compared to Robbie's huge blinkers
.) The less-prominent bottom teeth maintain Robbie's squarish jawline compared to the HT. Expand these two images of
neutral-faced Robbie and
the statue to full size and see there's much more than a passable resemblance even without a characteristic expression. The life
likeness however is thrown off by the thick hair sculpt (which is I why I supported Wonder Woman's rooted hair at these larger scales) and the lack or visible porous skin texture when you don't view the photos at full size, creating an unnatural-looking sheen that I would doubt is the case in-person based on how the Arkham Knight version turned out.
All this said, I'm all for people being vocally critical of the head sculpts. The 1:2 Wonder Woman prototype was barely passable in even the best photos, so I'm glad P1 is willing to rework the portrait unlike Sideshow and the aforementioned Pfeifer Catwoman. Whatever gets me a better product in-hand is fine by me. Just don't expect everyone to agree with you. We've been through the bad photography game with the entirety of P1's output, to the point of having a "Do P1 pieces look like big plastic toys" thread on the other forum, which I almost swore was a troll post. It's unfortunate P1's own photography might be to blame here, which is why I'm optimistic for Wonderfest.