1/6 The Dark Knight: Batmobile - Tumbler (relaunch)

[samwise_09]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

looks like its going to be just over £400 (convert at will to your own currency) still not sure whether to get this or not.....

 

[LordAzrael]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

actually its the flipper market which saturated superman lots of them to go around good for late comers to get at below or near retail , lol

Very true - I actually bought two more in pieces to try do Cyborg and Eradictor versions. Cost wise its looking pretty reasonable at about $200 for the body, head & full suit.

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Hot Toys business model is creating a bubble that I am afraid will burst. It appears they are flooding the market and eventually supply is going to outway demand (if it has not already done so) and in the end consumers will not buy something as a collectible that is going to be depreciated immediately after purchase. Collectors who want any figure will purchase on after market for below MSRP to save their hard earned money and then Hot Toys margins take a dive and they will not be able to support the massive inventories and overhead they have created and we know the rest. We have seen this too many times especially in the not so distant past with the new car market, housing market, consumer electronics market, etc.....

The only bubble that will burst is people buying the products for the wrong reasons (i.e. speculating as investment and those who want it and buy it even though they can't really afford it). People will always want cool quality products from pop culture properties that they enjoy. That's never going to completely bust until we're all back to sticks and stones on the cinder.

 

[ETERNIA FOREVER]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

goodship has a re launch up for pre order. $618 and im sure he has that marked up until stores actually put it up for preorder.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/HOT-TOYS-D...633?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3f12b13f61

This is awesome because if he is only selling this for $618 with FREE shipping that is meaning that online retailers will probly sell this for the orginal retail ............... - the 10% and the equals only $449 plus shipping equals perfect indeed

 

[qbomb71]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Erm no.

Housing bubble - government interference, too many people able to buy houses that should not have been given credit - artificial demand.

Car Market - government interference + costs substantially over international competitors - programs like cash for clunkers PULL FORWARD demand (they cannot create it). - artificial demand.

Consumer Electronics - too many distributors with no point of differentiation meant some will inevitably fail. Also decreasing price per unit means decreased profit per transaction and this isn't able to be made up by an increase in turnover. Also competition from internet only businesses leads to fall in brick & mortar equivalent businesses.

I think you are severely over-estimating how many people see "limited edition" as a major point. Certainly not enough to make any significant factor on demand. The biggest risk has always been people buying them only as "investments" and not to hold, as real long term demand only includes those who wish to "own" the product.

As for over-supply - Hot Toys being a wholesaler probably has very little problems with this, as there entire stock is pretty much sold to retailers. Retailers would be the ones holding it and lose out. Production runs are set based on pre-orders from retailers. If retailers were holding too much stock they will lower their level of pre-orders on future releases bring supply & demand back into equilibrium.

I agree with many of your points.

But, people did not buy houses on speculation that the could "flip" for higher prices in 2 to 6 months down the road? Results. Too much inventory, economic downturn, consumers over-extended-

It doesn't matter how this industry gets there, it just means companies such as Hot Toys need to account for that fact also. It has ruined many collectible segments in the past. History is there to learn from.

The point I highlighted is what one would expect to see. Why are we seeing the massive amounts of inventory still available on e-tailers such as SSC, AE, CSC? There is no slow down in releases coming and warehouses are only so large. Again, time will tell. I don't want this to be a bubble, I just see signs of things happening that are not of past success and often bring failure. Just being devil's advocate.

 

[LordAzrael]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

The only bubble that will burst is people buying the products for the wrong reasons (i.e. speculating as investment and those who want it and buy it even though they can't really afford it). People will always want cool quality products from pop culture properties that they enjoy. That's never going to completely bust until we're all back to sticks and stones on the cinder.

Exactly my point. The same thing happened back with comics in the 90's when people started buying multiples of investments, and the industry tried to cater to the investors - by renumbering back regularly, relaunching titles and other gimmicks to try make them better "investments". It all fell when people worked out that there was no demand for all these additional comics - buying to flip is no good if everyone who wants one already has the opportunity to buy one. Now the industry is back to normal, with the focus back on selling to customers who want to own comics, not try profit off an artificial shortage of supply based on "investors" purchasing multiples at time of sale.

 

[nevermore]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Just heard from one of the dealers in the UK the reissue tumbler is scheduled for a Q2 2012 release ( subject to change).
I can kinda understand that it should be a quick process to get these things manufactured as there hasnt been any info of changes or mods to the design so should be a straight forward release hopefully But knowing Hot toys they could push the dates back to Q4 as 2012 looks a busy year so far.

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Exactly my point. The same thing happened back with comics in the 90's when people started buying multiples of investments, and the industry tried to cater to the investors - by renumbering back regularly, relaunching titles and other gimmicks to try make them better "investments". It all fell when people worked out that there was no demand for all these additional comics - buying to flip is no good if everyone who wants one already has the opportunity to buy one. Now the industry is back to normal, with the focus back on selling to customers who want to own comics, not try profit off an artificial shortage of supply based on "investors" purchasing multiples at time of sale.

Exactly. And the only relative correlation to the housing market crash is people buying (or getting loans) for things that they can't really afford. That's been happening a bit with collectibles, too. But it won't completely kill the hobby as long as there is some demand for product.

 

[LordAzrael]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

But, people did not buy houses on speculation that the could "flip" for higher prices in 2 to 6 months down the road? Results. Too much inventory, economic downturn, consumers over-extended-

Actually you are once again wrong. People bought them on the basis they would not go down, and if they did they could walk away without being liable for the short fall in security due to non-recourse lending. For them - it was a no risk opportunity. If the market went up - they made money. If the market went down, they walked away. What made it worse was people did this multiple times - so the same individual may hold six or seven properties like this.

The artificial demand led to a boost in supply. The real problem (like here) is not an OVER supply - but rather the creation of an artificial demand.

And there are not "massive" amounts of inventory. There has always been trailing stock of 1/6th products around - its just a lot more visible with online retailers being more prevalent, and the slew of releases hitting the market at the same time. If we're talking about these products sitting there in 6 months time then we may start to be looking at issues - but remember the stock you are seeing on the shelves now was order 12 months ago. Did retailers think the economy would still suck this much ? The collectibles market has shrunk over the last year as the economy tightens - you need to remember there is a large lead time between announcement and getting the product to market.

 

[intothevoid]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Alfred would have called it the Batmobile if it hadn't been destroyed. So he asks if Bruce wants to take the Batpod. I don't see him asking if he wanted to take the Battumbler or just the Tumbler. It would have been Batmobile. The fact is, nobody has really talked about the Tumbler since Lucius introduced us to it. If we are to believe the cops in BB, its a tank

And you know Alfred would have called it the Batmobile because
Fact is that the production team always refer to it as the Tumbler on any behind the scenes or making of interviews etc. It's never called the Batmobile.

From THE CULT:

From THE DARK KNIGHT RETURNS:

These are also referred to as The Batmobile, and have been for over 20 years.

There are several others as well. Like this:

Those are exceptions as opposed to the norm

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Those are exceptions as opposed to the norm

And the Tumbler/Batmobile from the Nolan films is just another exception. Almost every Batmobile is different. There are tons of different Batmobiles throughout the history of Batman. Pretty much the only thing they all have in common is that they're black and drivable.

The Tumbler is also a Batmobile, dude.

https://www.batmobilehistory.com/2005-batmobile.php

 

[intothevoid]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Exactly. And the only relative correlation to the housing market crash is people buying (or getting loans) for things that they can't really afford. That's been happening a bit with collectibles, too. But it won't completely kill the hobby as long as there is some demand for product.

I don't think anyone's suggesting the hobby is going to be completely killed - but, to use the analogy of the house price crash - the Hot Toys economy looks like it could be heading towards a recession

- Collectors (home owners) will realize they can't justify buying thousands of $ worth of this stuff anymore because their prior assumption that if they ever needed the money they could easily sell for a profit no longer rings true.
- Hot Toys (the banks) are flooding the market at the moment seeing the high prices their products are fetching in the aftermarket, and perceiving this to mean that they should be producing a lot more than they currently are.

Looks to me there will come an inflection point where collectors are simply not going to be able to afford to gobble up all the supply HT is putting out there. This means
1. HT's direct customers, the retailers, will have large amounts of unsold inventory that they'll need to shift at significant discounts
2. The discounts will show collectors that the brand new DX20 Batman they have bought 1 month ago has already lost value, making some delay their future purchases waiting for the discounts
3. The delayed purchasing decisions of customers and the losses on discounted inventory will make the retailers less profitable. Many who have recently sprung up purely in response to the HT demand boom will feel the pinch and some will even go out of business.
4. That will mean lower pre orders for Hot Toys who, in the meantime have gone out and overstretched and bought even more expensive licenses
5. HT will realize they only have 2-3 profitable licenses and everything else they have either neglected or hasn't had the demand they had anticipated
6. HT will be forced to downsize
7. The HT economy will correct itself

That's what I see happening anyway

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Oh, I definitely agree that there will be some scaling back and down-sizing in the hobby. It's invevitable, and not necessarily a bad thing, either. But it won't die or completely crash. No true hobby ever will.

 

[intothevoid]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

And the Tumbler/Batmobile from the Nolan films is just another exception. Almost every Batmobile is different. There are tons of different Batmobiles throughout the history of Batman. Pretty much the only thing they all have in common is that they're black and drivable.

The Tumbler is also a Batmobile, dude.

https://www.batmobilehistory.com/2005-batmobile.php

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree

Indeed.

 

[intothevoid]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Oh, I definitely agree that there will be some scaling back and down-sizing in the hobby. It's invevitable, and not necessarily a bad thing, either. But it won't die or completely crash. No true hobby ever will.

Wrong.

Kidding

I agree - the hobby is taking over too many peoples lives, it's becoming an obsession and starting to lose its fun

 

[qbomb71]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Actually you are once again wrong. People bought them on the basis they would not go down, and if they did they could walk away without being liable for the short fall in security due to non-recourse lending. For them - it was a no risk opportunity. If the market went up - they made money. If the market went down, they walked away. What made it worse was people did this multiple times - so the same individual may hold six or seven properties like this.

The artificial demand led to a boost in supply. The real problem (like here) is not an OVER supply - but rather the creation of an artificial demand.

And there are not "massive" amounts of inventory. There has always been trailing stock of 1/6th products around - its just a lot more visible with online retailers being more prevalent, and the slew of releases hitting the market at the same time. If we're talking about these products sitting there in 6 months time then we may start to be looking at issues - but remember the stock you are seeing on the shelves now was order 12 months ago. Did retailers think the economy would still suck this much ? The collectibles market has shrunk over the last year as the economy tightens - you need to remember there is a large lead time between announcement and getting the product to market.

It depends. If you were an individual buying said house or condo you had no or very little liablility. If you were a company "contractor" building said condos or housing develpements due to artificial demand, you are now potentially bankrupt. I know people in both categories. Individual friends that just short sold and walked away. Contractor friends who had to file bankruptcy and are very much hurting financially.

Anyway, I am not out to get into a great debate over this as you have many valid points and a very good business mind also it seems. However, I would expect to see a correction soon with what I perceive to be a buildup of the last years releases with HTs. Until we know for sure how this plays I will just continue to enjoy what an amazing job HT's is doing in leading this market and what I really like and can afford.

 

[qbomb71]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

I don't think anyone's suggesting the hobby is going to be completely killed - but, to use the analogy of the house price crash - the Hot Toys economy looks like it could be heading towards a recession

- Collectors (home owners) will realize they can't justify buying thousands of $ worth of this stuff anymore because their prior assumption that if they ever needed the money they could easily sell for a profit no longer rings true.
- Hot Toys (the banks) are flooding the market at the moment seeing the high prices their products are fetching in the aftermarket, and perceiving this to mean that they should be producing a lot more than they currently are.

Looks to me there will come an inflection point where collectors are simply not going to be able to afford to gobble up all the supply HT is putting out there. This means
1. HT's direct customers, the retailers, will have large amounts of unsold inventory that they'll need to shift at significant discounts
2. The discounts will show collectors that the brand new DX20 Batman they have bought 1 month ago has already lost value, making some delay their future purchases waiting for the discounts
3. The delayed purchasing decisions of customers and the losses on discounted inventory will make the retailers less profitable. Many who have recently sprung up purely in response to the HT demand boom will feel the pinch and some will even go out of business.
4. That will mean lower pre orders for Hot Toys who, in the meantime have gone out and overstretched and bought even more expensive licenses
5. HT will realize they only have 2-3 profitable licenses and everything else they have either neglected or hasn't had the demand they had anticipated
6. HT will be forced to downsize
7. The HT economy will correct itself

That's what I see happening anyway

Very well said.

 

[IrishJedi]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

Wrong.

Kidding

I agree - the hobby is taking over too many peoples lives, it's becoming an obsession and starting to lose its fun

Unfortunately, that is very true. That's why I've often made allergories to drug addiction when it comes to collecting. For some people, it really is like that. The diehard completists, for one, are almost slaves to the hobby. They even get the same sensations (need for a fix, the rush that comes from ordering/receiving an item, and then the crash afterward and need for the new fix, etc). And it can actually destroy lives. It's scary. There needs to be at least a little practicality and rationality mixed in every once in a while.

 

[Entropy]

Re: The Dark Knight: 1/6th scale Batmobile Collectible (relaunch)

8. And I looked, and behold, a pale horse! And its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him. And they were given authority over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the earth.