Will Hot Toys ever lose their value?

[thenammagazine]

I think some will, some won't, it depends on the movies they are based on

Terminator 1 and 2 will not
Terminator Salvation will

I don't even think most of the T:S figures will dip below retail. Maybe the T-600 because there were what, 4 releases of him, but not the exclusive and not the rest of the figs.

 

[Avenger]

Yes, but valuable doesn't equal limited and vice versa, that's all I was saying.

I don't think this thread is about figures dropping to below MSRP but about maintaining or returning to MSRP.

To be clear, I agree with you, I'm of the opinion that in most cases they'll at the very least retain MSRP. I really can't imagine a day is ever going to come when they're exchanging hands for $30 - 40 or anything like that, no.

Lord let's hope not. I'd have some over that much loss.

 

[DinoLast]

I don't even think most of the T:S figures will dip below retail. Maybe the T-600 because there were what, 4 releases of him, but not the exclusive and not the rest of the figs.

I have to admit that after I posted that, I realised how much those Predators cost from the God awful AVP movies. I guess it's not just the film, I guess it's down to supply and demand.

 

[thenammagazine]

I have to admit that after I posted that, I realised how much those Predators cost from the God awful AVP movies. I guess it's not just the film, I guess it's down to supply and demand.

 

[creecher]

I'd say if Hot Toys ever disclosed how big the edition sizes of their figure releases are, the prices would drop dramatically in accordance.

 

[78Myers]

I'd say if Hot Toys ever disclosed how big the edition sizes of their figure releases are, the prices would drop dramatically in accordance.

I agree. I've never met anyone who said, "Man, I couldnt land me insert toy name here when it went for pre-order. It sold out immediately, the limited run was crazy. Hopefully I land one on ebay...," on the first day of pre-orders.

This toys are not limited. If you really want one, or two, or three....you can get 'em as soon as they get on order, when they are released and some time after that. That itself shows how great the quantities are. Now, you want to say that the earlier figures or pricey, and the rarity of them being around make 'em desirable...ok, fine. Not too many people were swinging on HT's nut-sack at that point, and based on nostalgia, I can see someone wanting those sub par figures, and also based on characters that are loved that you may want (i.e stupid Rambo).

Seriously though, if you wanted multiple DX Jokers, when they went up for sale and a lil' after, you couldve. Same with DX Bats and many other figures that are going for a pretty penny (i.e T2 Arnie et.).

Limited...I think not.

 

[Lejuan]

I agree. I've never met anyone who said, "Man, I couldnt land me insert toy name here when it went for pre-order. It sold out immediately, the limited run was crazy. Hopefully I land one on ebay...," on the first day of pre-orders.

This toys are not limited. If you really want one, or two, or three....you can get 'em as soon as they get on order, when they are released and some time after that. That itself shows how great the quantities are. Now, you want to say that the earlier figures or pricey, and the rarity of them being around make 'em desirable...ok, fine. Not too many people were swinging on HT's nut-sack at that point, and based on nostalgia, I can see someone wanting those sub par figures, and also based on characters that are loved that you may want (i.e stupid Rambo).

Seriously though, if you wanted multiple DX Jokers, when they went up for sale and a lil' after, you couldve. Same with DX Bats and many other figures that are going for a pretty penny (i.e T2 Arnie et.).

Limited...I think not.

You're talking about collectors passing on figures, which is part of the equation; what you're not taking into account are the collectors who weren't collecting when a particular figure came out and are willing to pay a premium because most collectors who did secure it upon release aren't letting go of theirs.

Mk I, Robocop, Blade, OC Bats, P1, DX01 etc etc - they're certainly limited enough to make sure that latecomers like me have to dole out a small fortune if we ever want to have them on our shelves.

 

[creecher]

I'm guessing they're limited to pre-order demand.

Depending if demand is there, or they haven't reached their profit point, they'll extend the pre-order to run over time, and announce it as a delay. They are so fined tuned, or ought to be by now, that the release times should be more closely met.

That and they're most likely to produce the run to the next nearest 1000 units, Which meets demand without flooding the market too much.

 

[thenammagazine]

If demand was met, HT figures wouldn't be selling at 2, 3 and 5 times their initial MSRP. The EtD Bruce Lee will be an interesting study in this. I predict the exclusive'll remain sold out and he's already fetching double and triple MSRP.

 

[Bloodsport]

No, but how difficult would it be for you to find one right now? I'm guessing very easy.

Its hard as hell to find a Celtic Predator and Chopper and if you do find one its way over $400 bucks.

 

[Bloodsport]

your preaching to the chior bro. Let's hope I'm wrong and that these young cats take our super heros and G1 transformers to the next level. Let's hope our super heros are appreciated by future generations to come.

I believe the future collectors will cherish our cartoons, toys, and 1/6 figures. When I was a kid, I was fascinated by older toys from yesteryear. Most people arent like us, toys, comic, statue, coins, vintage collectors but the one who are will eventually take it to the next level.

 

[Bloodsport]

If there were enough to go around, older HT figures wouldn't be fetching $400-$1k and up on ebay. You can use lame examples and the few poor sellers to base your arguments on all you want, but the majority of HT's figures go up. Ebay's ripe with proof.

INSTANT VICTORY FLAWLESS VICTORY
I agree. If its so freaking eaaaazy to buy a Celtic Predator why would it cost me $800-$1000. Heck since its so old, I should be able to buy it for $150. Last month, some guy made over $2,000 by selling his "HOT TOYS" Predator collection. So take that jack.

 

[Vortex]

INSTANT VICTORY FLAWLESS VICTORY
I agree. If its so freaking eaaaazy to buy a Celtic Predator why would it cost me $800-$1000. Heck since its so old, I should be able to buy it for $150. Last month, some guy made over $2,000 by selling his "HOT TOYS" Predator collection. So take that jack.

Not so fast on victory, we may be in a bubble. These things are hot right now and may remain so for awhile ala Star Wars and the like. Something better comes along and the bubble bursts.

Things that are dangerous to this topic (Right now) would be:
1-Flipping
2-Flipping
3-Flipping

I have seen it before. Flipping is NOT healthy for true collectors in the long run. You help to create a false short term market, not unlike most scalpers/ebay sellers, and you help to price current and new collectors out of the market.. hence killing yourself.

 

[JohnnyT]

I think some will, some won't, it depends on the movies they are based on

Terminator 1 and 2 will not
Terminator Salvation will

If pretty bad movies (and i mean bad by the masses) like Robocop 3 or AVP can produce figures with value, then TS should last too.

 

[Darth Madden]

INSTANT VICTORY FLAWLESS VICTORY
I agree. If its so freaking eaaaazy to buy a Celtic Predator why would it cost me $800-$1000. Heck since its so old, I should be able to buy it for $150. Last month, some guy made over $2,000 by selling his "HOT TOYS" Predator collection. So take that jack.

Well of course it doesn't hold true for EVERY figure but for the Predator you mentioned I can counter with the Harvy Dent figure that I got for $50 or Sao Feng which is languishing in the GC section at Sideshow. I am just saying in general these things are not that limited and price doesn't equal rare. Predator is expensive because all of them are in the hands of people who want to keep them not because they only made 100 of them.

 

[fosing]

ball-less victory.
[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBPduMCUMFU"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBPduMCUMFU[/ame]

 

[karamazov80]

When discussing price, one thing you have to consider is long-term interest in the product. As has been suggested here, the industry evolves. Things improve, leaving older remnants, and interest in them, behind. Also, collectors' interests change. A hardcore HT collector today may not be one tomorrow for various reasons, and in general, folks may become far less interested in Predator toys or whatever as time goes on. Will there be more HT collectors in the future (say, in 5-10 years?) or less? I'm inclined to think less because I think HT is tapping into a very specialized market that is thriving at this specific moment.

What this would mean, if it pans out, is that available supply on the market would increase as people get rid of them, parallel to decreasing levels of demand, meaning prices would drop. I also think there is an speculative investment component to these specific toys that artificially inflates prices beyond what they should be, as we've seen with baseball cards, comics, other toys, homes, etc. in the past. Add to this the concern about edition size (I suspect typical releases from HT nowadays are on the order of 5-10,000, though this is extrapolation and speculation based purely on edition sizes of their "exclusives" and comparisons with Sideshow's 1/6th scale ed. sizes), and the odds that what we are seeing is a short-term phenomenon increase in my eyes.

Of course, I'm a skeptic and cynic about these sorts of things, so I could be wrong. I've certainly made bad bets when I decided that selling my DX Joker, P1 Pred, DX Batman, and OC Batman for $200 a piece was a great idea. Happily off-loading a Wesker for $140 and a Wolverine for $170ish probably also weren't my best moments.

 

[Darth Madden]

I think you said very clearly what I was trying to say. Thanks Karamazov. I hope I am wrong and these things are worth a lot in 10 years but I just don't see it happening.

 

[cplhicks]

ball-less victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBPduMCUMFU

What movie is that from?

 

[fosing]

What movie is that from?

sonny chiba in the movie street fighter. legendary melodramatic punches.