You would be better off asking sideshow customer support, sometimes they just miss an order. It's happened to me twice, and the only thing they said is that they don't know why it happened and they shipped the figure out that same day... I'm not saying that's whats going on here or that they have one to ship to you, but it wouldn't hurt to ask because sometimes it does get the ball rolling a bit faster. They are very polite and accommodating (Note: I've only ever used their online help chat)
I have done what you are saying and changed from flex to full pay with orders and it usually results in me getting the figures on the 1st wave of shipments. But I also tend to order the day the figures are available and not after they already started shipping, so I can't say for sure if it would effect your order, but I doubt it. They probably already worked out who is getting theirs with this allotment and you didn't make the cut, but as I already stated asking them is the only real way to get a definitive answer.