Sure the prices will drop, and indeed, probably a bit below MSRP.Most sellers offer for a bit under the MSRP and so it seems to me that it's not too unlikely that if does end up being stocked by normal retailers it'll be US $200 or a little under. Even if it does sell out though, I have a hard time imagining the price is going to stay at a constant $400 and upwards. I will make the largely uneducated guess that prices they're asking now are only going to drop, not rise.
They might not want to go through the trouble of shipping internationally. It can be a bother shipping it and even more of a bother if a problem later arises, it can be a headache many like to avoid.
I just though that the comment about "anything above $200, one day after release, it too much" was a bit strange: why in the world would anyone sell it for below MSRP now when they can still make some extra money...
Japanese people don't speak a lot of English, so I think it's also too much of a hassle for them to try and figure what it is your asking