According to you 99% of HTs releases will be in the bargain bin. For the sake of my wallet I wish you were right.
I wouldn't say 99%, but probably like 33%-44% end up going in the bargain bin for sure. Look at Captain Marvel, Team Suit Tony, Night Monkey you can get them all brand new for under $200 each.
The IW and EG Thanos are both below retail. The newly released Mildly BD Thanos will surely tank in value in due time.
A decent amount of the VG Spidey figs can be picked up for less than retail (Mk. IV, Anti-Ock).
Heck, even a relatively newer release like Rescue can be picked up well below retail now!
I'm almost certain Professor Hulk will nose dive in pricing.
This newly released 2012 Cap doesn't even look that great...the proportions seem to be a bit off. Big wonky Rogers head with slim body...plus, there's just not a lot of chatter regarding this release which equals low interest. Give it time and I'm certain you will be able to pick it up below retail.
The biggest factor to all these discounts is patience. If you're a day one, must-own these immediately kinda collector then you'll always be paying top dollar. For the sake of your wallet you can save too by just being patient.
The only exception to this rule is if HT outputs an extremely low number of figs, case and point: Gamora GOTG Vol. 2...then yeah, it'll sell out quick and in which case you actually did miss out cause it's only avail on secondary market for a premium.