I'm guessing it was Jacob. But could've been MiB, disguised as Christian presumably, he later appeared in the cabin with instructions for Locke to move the Island. But I'm not sure what was up with the ash circle. It was intact in 2004 and then broken in 2007. If it was MiB in the cabin he couldn't have appeared elsewhere on the island as Smokey. And if he wasn't in there then Christian wasn't actually Smokey as MiB couldn't cross the ash to get into the cabin, unless someone (Claire) had broken the circle just before that meeting, which is my guess. Someone seemed trapped in there, or perhaps it was sanctuary like the Temple?
I'm guessing it was Jacob. But could've been MiB, disguised as Christian presumably, he later appeared in the cabin with instructions for Locke to move the Island. But I'm not sure what was up with the ash circle. It was intact in 2004 and then broken in 2007. If it was MiB in the cabin he couldn't have appeared elsewhere on the island as Smokey. And if he wasn't in there then Christian wasn't actually Smokey as MiB couldn't cross the ash to get into the cabin, unless Claire had broken the circle just before that meeting, which is my guess. Someone seemed trapped in there, or perhaps it was sanctuary like the Temple?
MiB, via Richard and Christian, instructed Locke to move the island, bring back the Oceanic 6 and that he must die. My guess is that MiB needed to take the physical form of a Candidate in order to leave the island, but the Candidate must be dead first, but the Candidates can't be killed directly by MiB or die on the island because of Jacob's touch.
edit: In thinking about it, why did MiB/smokey spare Richard's life or Eko's when it encountered them? I doubt either was a Candidate. My guess is that Smokey "read" both Richard and Eko, saw that each man had committed murder and thought them capable of killing Jacob for him. But as Jacob said, your past doesn't matter once you come to the Island. When MiB realized Eko was a repentant man who would not help him, he no longer had use of him and killed Eko. Richard he couldn't touch because of Jacob's gift of immortality.
It's fun when it seems the pieces are falling into place.
It's even more fun that we have to put this all together on our own for the most part! Taking that step back and seeing how everything has come together...
One thing I don't see in our future is a voiceovered montage of someone explaining everything while we're shown when those things transpired. I prefer to have to look back and question motives and apply what we've learned thus far.
Apparantly Damon and Carlton will be hosting an in theatre even on May 20th, three days before the finale. This event will constitute and In-Depth discussion journeying through the six years the show has been on the aire. There will be a Q&A along with a one minute preview of the finale!
I think the event is live in Michigan, but am assuming it will be streamed live in various theatres in several cities across the country? Hope so!!!!
Also, I re-watched Season 1 Ep. 4 'Walkabout' last night.....in one of Locke's flashbacks he is at his desk using his calculator which prints out receipts of what he enters. We all know a sound the smoke monster makes sounds like receipt paper printing out, and in that flashback Locke basically just got made fun of by his boss; and he looks up as he continues to use his printing calculator and the show goes to commercials, cutting out with the sound of the receipt printing and echoing. Very similar to smokey.
Also just from re-watching a few episodes of Season 1....it's almost as if John Locke is already the MIB or a nicer version, what he knows and his guidance to the LOSTIES is amazing. It's as if he has magical powers, and Locke hasn't even been fully explained yet. There is a reason why Locke is very mystical, all knowing and a guide/guardian in Season 1 that we don't know yet, but I think we will learn why soon.
Yeah, they've keenly worked the duality angle in many forms throughout the series including setting up a bigger Jack Locke conflict that never really came. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack, now the new Jacob, and MiB as Locke sitting on the beach in the last episode, though I'm expecting an ending with more finality and a bigger bang. I still predict a Fall of the House of Usher/The Tempest lost of magic/destruction of the island ending. Sinking the island would probably qualify but I have always thought they were hinting at a volcanic melt down.
Olivia mentions to her class how the Island had volcanic reactions occurring "a long time ago", suggesting it was dormant or extinct.
On the DVD commentary track for "The Man Behind the Curtain", Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse point out an Easter egg when Olivia demonstrates the volcano model in her classroom. The producers stated that the volcano on the Island will be "less important than Annie, but still seismic". Seeing as Annie has had zero payoff or mention since her first intro, I wouldn't be surprised if volcano plans were scrapped for a quicker and less expensive demise for The Island.
EDIT: Just listened to the March 11, 2010 podcast...
More volcano activity to come. (sweet!)
Annie is not central to the show. Juliet was a proxy for Annie. She and her family may have left the Island two years later in 1975 (her appearance being in 1973).
Also...
DHARMA food drop questions will be answered, but maybe not in the show itself. Damon and Carlton say that we should be interested by this.
Implied that the Lighthouse and Cave lists could be different because Jacob is trying to trick the Man in Black. (does MiB not know about the Lighthouse?)
Jacob's death "very likely to have" caused the man in black to be stuck in Locke's form. (Part of MiB's power tied to Jacob... hmmm.)
and in the new podcast, hints that in a future episode...
A character (Hurley?) will ask and learn from another character (Libby?) whether the smoke monster could take the form of only dead people (no?) and if Dave we saw on the island was the smoke monster trying to get Hurley to kill himself (yes).
I don't know if I'd notice the connection without Jacob's theme playing there, but yeah, it definitely reminds me of our introduction to Jacob and MIB last season.
I don't think when they shot the Jack/Locke scene years ago they had this planned out but when they did the Jacob/MiB scene last season, I bet they tried to mirror it.
You guys are coming up with some great ideas here. I've never rewatched any of the episodes, so I may have forgotton a lot of the storylines that are coming back into play now.
Are we going to see the loooooooong delayed Jin/Sun reunion???? Or will it end tragically for the pair? I'm really hoping for the former... though I expect it to be emotional either way.
Non-Related theory: Seeing as how the continuity overseer shared writing credit last week for "Ab Aterno", I highly doubt the date for the Black Rocks arrival was "wrong". What if the Black Rock first came to the Island circa 1846 (the time when, according to the auctioneer, the Black Rock was lost out at sea) during the day when Jacob and MIB where engaged in conversation beneath the statue? And what if at that point the ship was still intact, and for the next 20 years, it was Jacob's "sub".... a means for him (or others acting according to his will) to travel back and forth from the Island until it returned in 1867 with Richard aboard and was wrecked. Thoughts?
The Black Rock came to the Island in 1867, with Richard aboard. It left Portsmouth in 1846 or 1847. The daytime scene from 'The Incident' was just another examplke of Jacob bringing possible candidates to the Island, hence the line from MIB:
This ship from 'The Incident', despite the lack of storm, was The Black Rock as well.
In the Official Lost Podcast of March 24, 2010, Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse confirm that.
While the Black Rock left England in 1845, they probably added the 1867 Canery Islands bit to be better in line with the invention of dynamite in 1866. Still doesn't account for the slave trade being abolished by England in 1833. Perhaps Capt. Hanso was acting independently for some reason.
This ship from 'The Incident', despite the lack of storm, was The Black Rock as well.
In the Official Lost Podcast of March 24, 2010, Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse confirm that.
While the Black Rock left England in 1845, they probably added the 1867 Canery Islands bit to be better in line with the invention of dynamite in 1866. Still doesn't account for the slave trade being abolished by England in 1833. Perhaps Capt. Hanso was acting independently for some reason.
So MiB was apparently once human and it seems that Jacob was responsible for his loss of humanity and gaining of shape shifting powers, most likely part of the wager about man's nature.
Trying to connect the dots... in prehistory, Jacob and MiB were fraternal twins born to a woman marooned on the Island who went crazy, though MiB's desire to "go home" implies his origin is somewhere else. MiB somehow kills their mother; the Mysterious Boy being a vision of young Jacob, his hands covered in her blood. MiB justifies his actions as man's basic nature to be selfish and violent. Jacob disagrees. Some powerful force (an original Island caretaker Jacob-type character or the Island itself) gives Jacob (and perhaps MiB also) mystical powers. Or just Jacob had power and when he agrees to MiB's bid to leave the Island, a wager about man's good or evil nature, he gives some power to MiB, taking his mortality & human form allowing MiB to change shapes and read minds as Smokey, to better equip him and balance the scales when it comes to manipulating the Candidates in the contest. The rules - cannot harm each other or the candidates directly, and the objective - convince someone (both "good" and "bad" people brought to the Island) to kill Jacob with a dagger (same one MiB used to kill mom?). If MiB succeeds and Jacob is not replaced, he can leave the Island.
But I can't really reconcile MiB being a powerful force of evil that threatens humanity but yet was once just a man. If he received his power from Jacob, why would Jacob create the very threat that he must keep bottled up?
Not sure how they'd make it work, but the good and bad brothers thing is a story staple. I doubt they'll reveal MiB's name to be Esau, but they are obviously drawing, at least in part, inspiration from that Bible story.
MiB gets his views about humanity being corrupt from somewhere in his human origins, most likely related to his mother and whatever happened to her. And if Mysterious Boy is a vision of young Jacob before he was Island caretaker, (it could simply be Jacob 'reborn' or Aaron I guess) it's most likely his family's blood on his hands after he finds them dead. I was just trying to tie Mysterious Boy/Jacob's origin to MiB's origin. I guess MiB could predate Jacob but it seems to me at least that MiB's origin and personal gripe is tied directly to Jacob himself and not a Jacob-like precursor figure.
Just trying to make the pieces fit...
1) Mysterious Boy, who knows of the rules and who MiB recognizes, survived a horrible family accident. Even at a young age, he has been put in charge of something very important, and it weighs heavily on his shoulders.
2) MiB had a crazy mother who caused him "problems" that relate to his contest with Jacob.
3) MiB was once human and Jacob took his humanity.
4) Jacob's death is why MiB can no longer change shape.
5) If MiB leaves the island, evil will spread and Hell on earth type stuff.
