Yeah, I hear ya. I'm doing the same thing as you, just reversed. I pretty much acquired the entire line-up from AoU, sans Hulkbuster, Ultron Mk I and Ultron Sentry. I don't have War Machine yet either, but I think I will eventually pick him up. If HT later on releases an Ultimate Ultron or even say another Bruce Banner figure (as they did with the first Avengers film), I will pass on both of those, also.
For CW, I will be getting the minimum because I'll have most of these characters from AoU. I'm getting CW Cap and IM because the film is obviously centered around the clashing of ideals, beliefs and opinions between the two, so they are the main two players that represent the film. I also have every HT Cap released up until this point, so I also want to keep that going being that Cap is my favorite character in the MCU.
As far as Widow, I have every Widow figure HT has produced up until this point, so I want to keep the collection going with her as well.
Regarding Falcon, I currently have TWS Falcon, but I want one more Falcon of him in his actual "Falcon" suit so to speak in full character, so I think the CW Falcon will be the last one I get. I was initially planning on only getting the CW Falcon to represent Falcon, but if it's a character I like, I typically like to get the first figure of that character to display their origin suit, so to speak. Though it's possible I may just skip the CW Falcon and wait for IW with him.
With Ant-Man, as I mentioned, this current Ant-Man figure ships essentially right before CW is released, so you would basically be receiving one Ant-Man figure and then immediately purchasing another. I won't contemplate getting another Ant-Man until IW.