Yeah, music is one thing (because, face it, most folks don't even pay for it) but I have a hard time believing that downloadable movies will replace physical media.
I think 5-10 years is overly optimistic (at least for HD content anyway), but I do see it going that direction eventually. I'd bet the farm that we're at least 10-15 years or more from seeing downloads actually replace tangible media. 10 years is a SHORT time, and there are too many factors that need to come into play before it would happen on a large enough scale.
Still, if I had the ability to download HD movies thru iTunes, and stream them to my HDTV via something like an Apple TV unit, I'd be in heaven. That technology is dangerously close and I don't doubt that we're only 5-10 years away from seeing that become popular. But as a total replacement for disc media? That's gonna take a lot longer I think.
Still, if I had the ability to download HD movies thru iTunes, and stream them to my HDTV via something like an Apple TV unit, I'd be in heaven. That technology is dangerously close and I don't doubt that we're only 5-10 years away from seeing that become popular. But as a total replacement for disc media? That's gonna take a lot longer I think.
You can already do exactly this with TIVO and Amazon Unbox. That's why I'm so confident it's sooner rather than later. As storage capacity becomes cheaper and compression becomes better it's going to come down to available bandwidth. That's going to be the bottleneck in the forseeable future.
I picked up "Close Encounters" on Blu-ray this week, and if you are a fan of the film then I recommend getting it. The package is a bit on the expensive side, but it includes the 1977, 1980 and 1997 versions of the film (along with a neat subtitle feature that pops up and explains the differences between the three when appropriate). There is also an additional disc with several nice documentaries and other features. We are in the middle of a very crowded video release season, and this is a title that I almost skipped--but I'm glad I got it.
How much info do you really need to store on a single disc? I'd imagine the hardware to read it will change too.
As to the need for space, many BR supporters claim that the extra space on a 50 GB Blu-ray disc allows more room for the film encode and lossless audio tracks. HD DVD will now have that capacity as well--although I have many 30 GB HD DVDs that look a lot better than some 50 GB Blu-ray discs.
How much info do you really need to store on a single disc? I'd imagine the hardware to read it will change too - I don't see people transitioning to yet another format any time soon.
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