The thing of it is how many high end fans are really out there? HT does limited runs and in China they don't have to clear as much profit for something to be a success. Could me sell a high end Predator for 200 dollars and really sell how many? We would have to sell many more than HT for the figure to be worth it. The Q is this how many fans will pay 80 dollars and how many will pay 200? It's a much better chance to sell the figure at 80 than 200. I rather go High end any day but in the end the figure needs to make money. SS for example when they do a statue they make what 800 pieces? No metal molds that cost 10 of 1000s of dollars. Really their smart because it's way cheaper and remember they did injection action figures 10 years ago and left it to do more statue stuff. Maybe on certain figures like P1 after we've done our run at 80 dollars we could afford to go back and do a small limited run and give him all the bells and whistles and make it high end 200+ dollar figure. That would rule big time. Really though for 80 dollars has there ever been a better bang for the buck figure than our P1?
To answer how many people would pay $200, it really depends on the quality of the figure. If you can take those gorgeous sculpts, scale them up to 19" or 20", paint them like a high-end collectible, and make sure that the quality is up to par, we'd take them.
HT does do amazingly well and a lot of their market is also here in the US and across the rest of the world, as demonstrated by what you see on SSF. And what we see on this forum isn't even all of it. Plus, HT's sculpts aren't accurate, which is something all of us know for a fact. NECA is clearly superior in that department, but it's the lack of true quality that keeps the high-end guys from buying. If NECA produces a figure that is in fact deserving and features the full package (sculpt, paint, durability), you've got a hit. Granted, it wouldn't be a hit for impulse buys as you'd get 90% of your business (if not more) from online orders only, but you'd still have a hit with the pricier crowd.
Kind of like you said, you could test the waters by seeing what a high-end P1 could look like. Or maybe try a P2 first since it's something new that none of us have yet, so that'll give a bigger incentive to buy. It's still a character from the original movies, and with all those accessories, a giant high-end representation of him is something we've all been drooling for. If the original film monsters sell well, then that could greenlight production of the P2 Elder, Losties, etc.
It's true, a new venture like this is unpredictable, but the reason why is because no one has done something like this before. There isn't a single definitive figure of P1 or P2 that has both a high-end sculpt and true high-end paint apps and quality. This is new territory here; NECA's missing something that HT has been able to provide, while HT's missing something NECA's had all along. Combine the two and all of the 'versus' arguments will be over since this could potentially result in
the Predator figure.
*whistles awkwardly* Sorry for the long posts, all. Just throwing in my two cents.