Last night, I think the guy who does "the Blintz" with Berman said that the Colts are the better team, and that unless they are sloppy and commit turnovers, they will win the Superbowl. I tend to agree with that. He made the comparison to the Colts Superbowl against the Bears--another defense that relied heavily on turnovers for success, but couldn't beat the Colts in the big game.
Of course, Rex Grossman is no Drew Brees, but I think the Colts and Saints have comparably good offenses. The Colts, however, seem to have a much better defense in terms of yardage and points allowed. So, unless the Saints get lucky with some special teams plays, or can get some turnovers, or unless Peyton has a bad day (unlikely), I say the odds are in the Colts' favor.
The Colts have not only been good this year. Despite their need to come back in the 4th quarter several times, they have seemed much more stable than the Saints. Saints have had some crazy wins. Last night was not the first of the year. Part of the reason the Colts seem to do so well toward the end is that Peyton seems able to adapt to whatever the other team is doing. It may take him a half (like yesterday), it might take him 3 quarters, but he figures out the defense, and learns how to take advantage. Honestly, I have not seen that so much from Brees. Brees is as talented a QB as I've seen in terms of his ability to throw the ball, but I haven't seen him learning to adapt to and pick apart defenses later in the game nearly as much as Peyton seems to (Brees seems better at scoring in the first two drives, then forgetting how to get a first down for 3 or 4 consecutive possessions). There are exceptions (i.e. Dolphins game), but not many.
As for the stat that the Saints scored more in the 4th quarter than opponents, a lot of that had to do with making opponents one-dimensional when the Saints had a big lead, IMO, and for a good chunk of the season the Saints running game could really take over for us in the 4th. That does not reflect adaptation to the D so much as the end result of wearing them down for 3 quarters with the run.