Star Wars: Episode IX - THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

[rushmore223]

IX trailer also got claps in my EG viewings.

That Hobbs and something movie got groans though I really think people are getting bored with the Rock

Hey if it can happen to Arnold, Stallone and Willis it can happen to Dwayne!

Jye, I think we need to call D. Johnson and stage an intervention between the 2 of you. You really, really dislike him.

What happened?

[emoji6]




I personally have no feelings, other than liking a couple of movies he was in.

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[jye4ever]

I honestly don’t dislike him but 80’s Arnold/Stallone he is not.

 

[Prime Clone]

Jeremy Jahns said that GOT has been poorly written starting with S5 and that 8 is no different.

I stopped watching after S5 but may eventually get around to the last three.

 

[rushmore223]

I honestly don’t dislike him but 80’s Arnold/Stallone he is not.

Well, nobody is, even Arnold isn't anymore.

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[TaliBane]

Yeah, I agree that $1 billion global box office is a fair minimum for a SW "Episode" movie. Anything below that would be evidence of a serious failure somewhere along the way. Like you pointed out, even AOTC crossed that (inflation adjusted) threshold. But $2 billion should be considered an *unqualified* success. The way I see it, TROS can only reach that number with a huge opening weekend; and a huge opening weekend can't happen if TLJ killed interest in the ST story. A lot has been said and written about the ultimate impact of that film on the rest of the franchise, but TROS opening weekend will settle it one way or another.

The opening weekend box office for any planned SW trilogy speaks volumes. For the first film, it shows how curious/open people are to seeing what the story will be like. For the second film, it shows how much the previous film kept the audience wanting more. And for the third film, the opening weekend shows what impact the middle film had on keeping enough people curious to want to see how it all ends.

Overall, if TROS can't match or exceed the TLJ revenue, then TLJ failed - and RJ and KK (and TLJ fans like me) will have to own that. Plain and simple. On the other hand, neither of the previous two trilogies had a sequel where the box office came anywhere near that of the opening film. So, if TROS gets to $2 billion, anyone still clinging to the "TLJ killed the ST" narrative would have to be an *****.



For sure! I'm probably more intrigued by audience reaction for that new trilogy than I am by whatever story it will tell. It's going to say a lot about the viability of the franchise outside of the Skywalker Saga and connections to the OT.

We've somehow arrived in a world where an opening in the vicinity of $200m isn't hugely remarkable which is kind of mind-blowing but its a product of the way business has gone. So to me, TROS is pretty much 110% guaranteed to open above $200m but the bigger test is does it end up with $550m or $950m domestic?

 

[Neal136]

So to me, TROS is pretty much 110% guaranteed to open above $200m but the bigger test is does it end up with $550m or $950m domestic?

My guess would be somewhere in the middle. If Endgame can't approach TFA's domestic gross, TROS isn't going to, either ... which will make a $2 billion-plus global gross very challenging. Remember that TFA didn't break $2 billion by a lot, and over 45% of it's total gross was domestic. Most movies in the $2 billion club are closer to a 30/70 split.
I don't believe that TROS needs to cross $2 billion to be considered successful, and that's a good thing ... because it's not going to get there.

 

[chewblacca]

The Last Jedi and Solo did horrible in China and that’s a big market to fail in.

 

[Neal136]

The Last Jedi and Solo did horrible in China and that’s a big market to fail in.

Exactly ... and even TFA "only" made $124 million there.

 

[jye4ever]

Just change the title to “The rise of my little unicorn skywalker hunter hyper laser monkey warrior wolf spirit” and it will do just fine.

 

[abake]

Despite TLJ’s divisivness I believe TROS will do well. ESB didn’t do as well as ANH, yet ROTJ got the crowds back in. AOTC didn’t match the numbers of a not-so-well received TPM, and still ROTS surpassed it.
This is Star Wars, people will go to see the finale, no matter what.


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[snoop101]

IX trailer also got claps in my EG viewings.

That Hobbs and something movie got groans though I really think people are getting bored with the Rock

Hey if it can happen to Arnold, Stallone and Willis it can happen to Dwayne!

People laughed at the Star Wars trailer during my viewing. More specifically the part where Rey jumps over the tie fighter.

 

[chewblacca]

Just change the title to “The rise of my little unicorn skywalker hunter hyper laser monkey warrior wolf spirit” and it will do just fine.

LOL I don’t think so. They can smell Lucasfilm from a continent away!

 

[xipotec]

People laughed at the Star Wars trailer during my viewing. More specifically the part where Rey jumps over the tie fighter.

Curious.... opening night or later on?

I have seen its several times now and no one laughed at the trailer....

But later crowds were much more of the casual type and much more disruptive of EG , even mocking parts....specifically the BW / Hawkeye scenes.


Sent from the inside of a giant slug in outer space.....

 

[ajp4mgs]

My guess would be somewhere in the middle. If Endgame can't approach TFA's domestic gross, TROS isn't going to, either ... which will make a $2 billion-plus global gross very challenging. Remember that TFA didn't break $2 billion by a lot, and over 45% of it's total gross was domestic. Most movies in the $2 billion club are closer to a 30/70 split.
I don't believe that TROS needs to cross $2 billion to be considered successful, and that's a good thing ... because it's not going to get there.

If you look at the domestic opening weekend box office for the two movies, you'll see how AEG blew TFA away. By more than $100 million!!

AEG: $357,115,007
TFA: $247,966,675

But, if you look at where both movies stood after just 17 days . . .

AEG: $723,745,643
TFA: $742,208,942

. . . you see how quickly TFA caught up to, and even passed, AEG. That's mostly because of repeat TFA viewings coinciding with the holidays. If TROS opens with a higher weekend total than TFA (it won't even need to sell as many tickets to do so), the same sort of holiday schedule will be in play again.

As TaliBane pointed out yesterday, nostalgia is a big part of the appeal for SW. And I think that nostalgia drives repeat viewings as much as anything. TLJ had little in the way of nostalgia, but TROS will likely be the complete opposite. Just look at the first TROS trailer: Lando, Palpatine, Death Star, and even a friggin' ceremonial medal from ANH!!

JJ will probably pack so much fan service into TROS that it'll seem like a SW retrospective feature. If it has a huge first weekend, I think a $900 million domestic total could be possible if fans get a healthy serving of Member Berries.

 

[Neal136]

Yup .. TFA was the perfect storm as far as its release strategy went. Not only did it open in December, but also had the added advantage of its second and third Fridays occurring on Christmas and New Year's Day.

 

[surforia]

Yup .. TFA was the perfect storm as far as its release strategy went. Not only did it open in December, but also had the added advantage of its second and third Fridays occurring on Christmas and New Year's Day.

TFA was also the first SW movie in over a decade and a direct sequel to arguably the most beloved trilogy of all time.

 

[Neal136]

TFA was also the first SW movie in over a decade and a direct sequel to arguably the most beloved trilogy of all time.

Well, right. I was talking even beyond that.

 

[TaliBane]

Despite TLJ’s divisivness I believe TROS will do well. ESB didn’t do as well as ANH, yet ROTJ got the crowds back in. AOTC didn’t match the numbers of a not-so-well received TPM, and still ROTS surpassed it.
This is Star Wars, people will go to see the finale, no matter what.


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The finale of the ST will be something not to be missed.

If you look at the domestic opening weekend box office for the two movies, you'll see how AEG blew TFA away. By more than $100 million!!

AEG: $357,115,007
TFA: $247,966,675

But, if you look at where both movies stood after just 17 days . . .

AEG: $723,745,643
TFA: $742,208,942

. . . you see how quickly TFA caught up to, and even passed, AEG. That's mostly because of repeat TFA viewings coinciding with the holidays. If TROS opens with a higher weekend total than TFA (it won't even need to sell as many tickets to do so), the same sort of holiday schedule will be in play again.

As TaliBane pointed out yesterday, nostalgia is a big part of the appeal for SW. And I think that nostalgia drives repeat viewings as much as anything. TLJ had little in the way of nostalgia, but TROS will likely be the complete opposite. Just look at the first TROS trailer: Lando, Palpatine, Death Star, and even a friggin' ceremonial medal from ANH!!

JJ will probably pack so much fan service into TROS that it'll seem like a SW retrospective feature. If it has a huge first weekend, I think a $900 million domestic total could be possible if fans get a healthy serving of Member Berries.

What is kind of unique to SW is the repeat business, but that was where TLJ faltered.

TFA was pretty unique though - it was not just the triumphant return of "bigscreen trilogy" SW (after a decade or more - the way TPM was) it was also the mouthwash for the PT and OT comfort food... fans simply couldn't believe it was a new SW movie that had almost ALL of the tropes of the OT (new farmboy Luke, new Vader, new stormies, new Empire, new TIEs/X-wings, new DS, new Fett, new desert planet, new snow planet, etc. etc.) and you could actually understand what was happening onscreen.

That drove fans into a frenzy, even if it was just chunks of the OT chewed up and regurgitated - nostalgia comfort food is the DNA of SW. But it got those massive repeat viewings where one fan will see it a dozen or more times over the month after opening weekend.

JJ is a master of the brand/IP - he's a bland, unremarkable filmmaker but his great strength is in freshening and presenting branded content in a way that bullseyes the current social zeitgeist. He will certainly be back in OT comfort food mode, so yeah I do think TROS will surprise on the upside.

Criticize KK all you want but she was smart enough to return to the branded content ringmaster for the final installment.

 

[abake]

Criticize KK all you want but she was smart enough to return to the branded content ringmaster for the final installment.

Somehow I have the feeling that wasn't up to her.

 

[greedo737]

Somehow I have the feeling that wasn't up to her.

Hahaha exactly