It does appear to be a new forearm, I think.
I don't disagree on any particular point, I would just say there may be other factors. The cost of the materials may have changed, the market may have changed. I don't know exactly what the tarrif situation is right now, but that (or uncertainty about that) may be a factor. It could be as simple as Hot Toys saying "Wow, the margins on the Mk 50 ended up being smaller than we wanted."
I'm only speculating. I mention these ideas not because I necessarily think they apply to this specific scenario, but just to illuminate some of the reasons a piece might disappoint.
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